国外权威期刊目录 Journal of International Economics ·国际经济学期刊（总第159期）
期刊介绍
Journal of International Economics 是公认的国际经济学领域顶级期刊，是SSCI的一区期刊，影响因子3.373，也是教育部认可的12本经济学国际顶级期刊之一。该期刊旨在作为国际经济学所有领域的理论和实证研究的主要渠道。这些包括但不限于以下内容：贸易模式，商业政策；国际机构；汇率；开放经济等。
本期期卷：Volume 134
发表日期：January 2022
来源：https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-international-economics/vol/134/suppl/C
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2022年1月刊合集（卷134）
目 录
（1）
Self-enforcing trade policy and exchange rate adjustment
自我实施贸易政策与汇率调整
Stéphane Auray, Michael B. Devereux, Aurélien Eyquem
关键词：汇率；保护主义；商业周期；汇率制度
（2）
Sovereign risk matters: Endogenous default risk and the time-varying volatility of interest rate spreads
主权风险问题：内生违约风险和利差的时变风波
Sergio de Ferra, Enrico Mallucci
关键词：主权风险；时变波动性；利率利差
（3）
Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows
风险资本流动：驯服潮起潮落
Gaston Gelos, Lucyna Gornicka, Robin Koepke, Ratna Sahay, Silvia Sgherri
关键词：资本流动；宏观审慎政策；外汇干预；资本管制；新兴市场
（4）
Oil prices, manufacturing goods, and nontradeable services
石油价格、制造业产品和不可贸易的服务
Makram Khalil
关键词：内生性全球油价；贸易渠道；制造和服务；石油和商业周期；油强度；中间输入
（5）
Quality heterogeneity and misallocation: The welfare benefits of raising your standards
质量异质性和错配：提高标准的福利
Makram Khalil
关键词：分配效率；产品标准；变量标记；质量异质性
1
Self-enforcing trade policy and exchange rate adjustment
自我实施贸易政策与汇率调整Stéphane Auray, Michael B. Devereux, Aurélien Eyquem
Abstract
We explore the cyclical pattern of trade protection in a simple New Keynesian open economy macro model. Tariff rates are determined endogenously in a sustainable equilibrium of a two country trade policy game. The incentive to levy tariffs is greater when the exchange rate is floating, since a fixed exchange rate removes the ability to manipulate the terms of trade. If price are fully flexible, we find that protectionism is basically a-cyclical. By contrast, with pre-set prices, tariffs respond to both monetary and productivity shocks. But the degree of protection may be pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical, depending on the pattern of shocks and parameter values.
摘 要
我们在一个简单的新凯恩斯主义开放经济宏观模型中探讨了贸易保护的周期性模式。关税税率是在两国贸易政策博弈的可持续均衡中内生决定的。当汇率浮动时，征收关税的动机更大，因为固定汇率消除了操纵贸易条件的能力。如果价格是完全灵活的，我们发现保护主义基本上是反周期的。相比之下，在预设价格的情况下，关税既能应对货币冲击，也能应对生产率冲击。但保护程度可能是顺周期的，也可能是逆周期的，这取决于冲击模式和参数值。
2
Sovereign risk matters: Endogenous default risk and the time-varying volatility of interest rate spreads
主权风险问题：内生违约风险和利差的时变风波
Sergio de Ferra, Enrico Mallucci
Abstract
Emerging markets’ interest rate spreads display substantial time-varying volatility. We show that models with endogenous sovereign default risk à la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) can account for such volatility, even in the absence of shocks to the second moments of the exogenous stochastic variables. In particular, these models feature a key non-linearity that allows them to replicate the stochastic volatility of interest rate spreads and its comovement with other important economic variables. Volatility correlates positively with the level of the spreads and the trade balance, negatively with output and consumption. Hence, sovereign default models endogenize the stochastic volatility of interest rates observed in emerging market economies.
摘 要
新兴市场的利差表现出相当大的时变波动性。我们证明了像Eaton和Gersovitz(1981)那样具有内生主权违约风险的模型可以解释这种波动，即使在外生随机变量的二阶矩没有冲击的情况下也是如此。特别是，这些模型具有一个关键的非线性，这使得它们能够复制利差的随机波动及其与其他重要经济变量的协变。波动性与价差水平和贸易差额正相关，与产出和消费负相关。因此，主权违约模型将新兴市场经济体中观察到的利率随机波动内生化。
3
Capital flowsat risk: Taming the ebbs and flows
风险资本流动：驯服潮起潮落
Gaston Gelos, Lucyna Gornicka, Robin Koepke, Ratna Sahay, Silvia Sgherri
Abstract
We propose a new quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on changes in global financial conditions, domestic structural characteristics, and policies. The approach allows us to differentiate between the impact on the median versus the tails of the future predicted density of flows, and between short- and medium-term effects. We find that FX- and macro prudential interventions are effective in mitigating downside risks to portfolio flows stemming from adverse global shocks, while tightening of capital controls in response appears to be counter productive. Good institutional frameworks are not able to shield countries from the increased volatility of portfolio flows in the immediate aftermath of global shocks, but can contribute to a more rapid bounce-back of foreign flows over the medium term. Our results highlight the limitations of the standard approach, which focuses only on the short-term behavior of average flows.
摘 要
我们提出了一个新的分位数回归框架，根据全球金融状况、国内结构特征和政策的变化，预测未来资本流入新兴市场的全部概率分布。这种方法使我们能够区分对未来预测的流量密度的中位数和尾部的影响，以及短期和中期影响。我们发现，外汇和宏观审慎干预在缓解不利的全球冲击对投资组合流动造成的“下行风险方面是有效的，而作为回应收紧资本管制似乎适得其反。良好的体制框架不能在全球冲击之后立即保护各国免受证券投资流动波动性增加的影响，但可以促进外国资本流动在中期内更快地反弹。我们的结果突出了标准方法的局限性，它只关注平均流量的短期行为。
4
Oil prices, manufacturing goods, and nontradeable services
石油价格、制造业产品和不可贸易的服务
Makram Khalil
Abstract
This paper studies the ability of manufacturing-specific shocks to explain oil prices. In an estimated three-region model (US, OPEC, rest of world) incorporating two sectors (manufacturing and services) in the oil-importing economies andfeaturing cross-border supply chains, such shocks rationalize the observed pattern of a positive comovement between oil prices and the global cyclical gap between manufacturing output and services provision. In the event of manufacturing technology shocks, oil demand, intermediate manufactured goods demand, and global trade move in tandem. Similarly important are shocks to final manufactured goods demand that are amplified by input-output linkages and trade. In the US, foreign shocks that cause higher oil prices – including oil supply disruptions – lead to rising manufacturing relative to services, and higher core inflation and policy rates. This rationalizes, to a large extent, the pattern during major oil price hikes, and, with opposite signs, during important low oil price episodes.
摘 要
本文研究了特定于制造业的冲击对油价的解释能力。在一个估计的三地区模型（美国、欧佩克、世界上其他地区）中，包括石油进口经济体的两个部门（制造业和服务业）并以跨境供应链为特征，这种冲击使观察到的油价与制造业产出和服务提供之间的全球周期缺口之间的正向同调模式变得更加合理。在制造技术冲击的情况下，石油需求、中间制成品需求和全球贸易同步行动。同样重要的是，投入-产出联系和贸易放大了对最终制成品需求的冲击。在美国，导致油价上涨的外国冲击（包括石油供应中断）导致制造业相对于服务业的上升，以及更高的核心通胀和政策利率。这在很大程度，上使主要油价上涨期间的模式合理化，而在重要的低油价时期，则有相反的迹象。
5
Quality heterogeneity and misallocation: The welfare benefits of raising your standards
质量异质性和错配：提高标准的福利
Luca Macedoni, Ariel Weinberger
Abstract
Using data from Chile, we find that more restrictive standards are associated with are allocation of domestic sales from small to large firms, which has allocative efficiency implications. Guided by this evidence, we study the welfare effects of the reallocation brought about by stricter standards in a model with monopolistically competitive, heterogeneous firms, and a general demand system. Restrictive standards have an ambiguous effect on welfare. On the one hand, they improve allocative efficiency because low-quality firms over-produce in the market allocation. This market distortion is driven entirely by the presence of variable markups and exists to varying degrees in both homothetic and non-homothetic frameworks. On the other hand, the imposition of stricter standards forces firms to pay a fixed cost that is welfare reducing. We estimate our model for Chile and find significant heterogeneity in the welfare gains from moving to the optimal standards policy across industries.
摘 要
使用智利的数据，我们发现更多的限制性标准与国内销售从小公司到大公司的重新分配有关，这具有配置效率的影响。在此证据的指导下，我们在一个具有垄断好胜、异质企业和一般需求系统的模型中研究了更严格的标准带来的再分配的福利效应。限制性标准对福利的影响是模棱两可的。一方面,它们提高了配置效率,因为低质量企业在市场配置中过度生产。这种市场扭曲完全是由可变加价的存在驱动的，并且在类比和非类比框架中都不同程度地存在。另一方面，更严格的标准迫使公司支付固定成本，即减少福利。我们对智利的模型进行了评估，发现跨行业转向最优标准政策带来的福利收益存在显著的异质性。
编辑：孙杜霞
审核：李文清
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https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-international-economics/vol/134/suppl/C
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