供稿：张少鹏        审核：李宣廷

1.19 世纪英格兰和威尔士的铁路、差异和结构变化

摘要：铁路在 19 世纪改变了内陆运输。在本文中，我们研究了在经历剧烈城市化的英格兰和威尔士，铁路如何导致当地人口变化和分化。我们利用了 9000 多个空间单元中有关火车站、人口和职业结构的详细数据，还创建了一个基于主要城镇和 1851 年铁路网络长度的最低成本路径网络，以解决内生性问题。我们的工具变量估计表明，到 1851 年在一个地方建立火车站会导致 1851 年到 1891 年的人口增长显著增加，并将男性职业结构从农业中转移出来。此外，我们估计，如果地区的初始人口密度更大，那么车站的人口增长会更多地增加，而对于距离车站 3-15 公里的那些地区，与距离车站更远的地区相比，它们的人口增长会更少。总体而言，我们发现铁路加强了 19 世纪早期的人口等级，并促成了进一步的空间分化。它们对人口地理分布的影响很大。

Abstract: Railways transformed inland transport during the nineteenth century. In this paper, we study how railways led to local population change and divergence in England and Wales as it underwent dramatic urbanization. We make use of detailed data on railway stations, population, and occupational structure in more than 9000 spatial units. A network of least cost paths based on major towns and the length of the 1851 rail network is also created to address endogeneity. Our instrumental variable estimates show that having a railway station in a locality by 1851 led to significantly higher population growth from 1851 to 1891 and shifted the male occupational structure out of agriculture. Moreover, we estimate that having stations increased population growth more if localities had greater initial population density and for those 3–15 km from stations, they had less growth compared to localities more distant from stations. Overall, we find that railways reinforced the population hierarchy of the early nineteenth century and contributed to further spatial divergence. Their implications for the geographic distribution of population were large.

论文原文：Dan Bogart, Xuesheng You, Eduard J. Alvarez-Palau, Max Satchell, Leigh Shaw-Taylor. (2022). Railways, divergence, and structural change in 19th century England and Wales. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103390. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103390.

2.移民执法对犯罪报告的影响：来自达拉斯的证据

摘要：移民和警察之间的不信任可能破坏执法部门维护社区安全的能力。本文记录了移民政策影响个人报告犯罪的意愿。我分析了 2015 年的优先执行计划，该计划将移民执法的重点放在被判定犯有严重罪行的个人身上，并将资源从与移民有关的犯罪中转移出来。我使用来自达拉斯警察局的数据，其中包括投诉人的种族，表明在引入 PEP 后，西班牙裔向警方报告的暴力和财产犯罪数量增加了 4% 。这些结果表明，减少对不对公共安全构成威胁的个人的执法，有可能改善移民社区和警察之间的信任。

Abstract: Mistrust between immigrants and the police may undermine law enforcement’s ability to keep communities safe. This paper documents that immigration policies affect an individual’s willingness to report crime. I analyze the 2015 Priority Enforcement Program, which focused immigration enforcement on individuals convicted of serious crimes and shifted resources away from immigration-related offenses. I use data from the Dallas Police Department that include a complainant’s ethnicity to show that the number of violent and property crimes reported to the police by Hispanics increased by 4 percent after the introduction of PEP. These results suggest that reducing enforcement of individuals who do not pose a threat to public safety can potentially improve trust between immigrant communities and the police.

论文原文：Elisa Jácome. (2022). The effect of immigration enforcement on crime reporting: Evidence from Dallas. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103395. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103395.

3.可交易驾驶许可证和拥堵通行费下的战略行为：一个政治经济学模型

摘要：本文建立了一种政治经济学模型，以研究与引入拥堵政策相关的战略行为。我们的主要重点是可交易的许可证，尽管我们也研究了拥堵收费的结果。我们首先研究一个两期模型，在第一个时期，多数人决定是否在下一个时期引入许可证制度。模型设置使得通行费和许可证在福利效果和投票结果方面都可以完全等效。我们发现，在政策公布之后但在引入之前的预期行为会诱使人们更多地开车;整体效果可能是福利减少。此外，即使司机免费获得所有许可证，或者通行费收入仅分配给司机，他们也会反对这些政策。因此，战略行为使得获得政治多数支持这些拥堵政策变得更加困难。我们进一步表明，在无限的地平线环境中，可交易的许可证和拥堵费不再是等价的。许可证优于拥堵收费，因为一旦系统实施，它们就可以避免战略行为。相比之下，拥堵收费意味着稳态均衡意味着持续的战略行为。一个后果是，获得许可证的政治多数比获得通行费更容易：我们发现司机总是会反对拥堵费，但如果他们免费获得足够份额的许可证，他们就会支持许可证。

Abstract:This paper develops a political economy model to study strategic behavior related to the introduction of congestion policies. Our main focus is on tradeable permits, although we also study results under a congestion toll. We first study a two-period model where, in the first period, a majority decides whether or not to introduce a permit system in the next period. The model setup is such that tolls and permits can be made perfectly equivalent, both in terms of welfare effects and voting outcomes. We find that anticipatory behavior after the policy is announced but prior to its introduction induces people to drive more; the overall effect may be welfare reducing. Moreover, drivers oppose the policies even when they receive all permits for free, or toll revenues are distributed to drivers only. Consequently, strategic behavior makes it more difficult to get a political majority to support these congestion policies. We further show that, in an infinite horizon setting, tradable permits and congestion tolls are no longer equivalent. Permits are superior to congestion tolls in that they avoid strategic behavior once the system is implemented. In contrast, with congestion tolls the steady-state equilibrium implies continuing strategic behavior. One consequence is that it is easier to get a political majority for permits than for tolls: we find that drivers will always oppose congestion tolls, but they support permits if they receive a sufficient share of the permits for free.

论文原文：Bruno De Borger, Amihai Glazer, Stef Proost. (2022). Strategic behavior under tradeable driving permits and congestion tolls: A political economy model. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103396. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103396.

4.谁住在城市的哪个地方？便利设施、通勤和收入分类

摘要：我们开发了一种“特色”城市的新模式，其中位置通过以下方式进行区分两个属性，即到就业中心的距离和与给定设施的可达性。居住均衡涉及共享相似收入的家庭的空间分离。根据 Stone-Geary 偏好，便利设施和通勤被纳入位置质量指数。因此，家庭到地点的分配变得一维。由于住宅选择是由位置质量指数驱动的，因此可以完全描述收入映射的特征。使用荷兰丰富的微数据集，我们发现家庭收入分类确实是由便利设施和通勤时间驱动的。

Abstract:We develop a new model of a “featureful” city in which locations are differentiated by two attributes, that is, the distance to employment centers and the accessibility to given amenities. The residential equilibrium involves the spatial separation of households sharing similar incomes. Under Stone-Geary preferences, amenities and commuting are subsumed into a location-quality index. Hence, the assignment of households to locations becomes one-dimensional. Since residential choices are driven by the location-quality index, the income mapping may be fully characterized. Using a rich micro-dataset on the Netherlands, we show that household income sorting is indeed driven by amenities and commuting times.

论文原文：Carl Gaigné, Hans R.A. Koster, Fabien Moizeau, Jacques-François Thisse. (2022). Who lives where in the city? Amenities, commuting and income sorting. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103394. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103394.

5.不在邻居的后院？巷道住宅和邻居的财产价值

摘要：单户住宅区划通常被认为是保护社区设施所必需的，但它也被指责为通过限制供应而使住房负担不起。2009 年，温哥华市重新划分了 95% 的单户住宅区，以允许小型附属住宅单元（ ADU ）或住宅结构后面的"巷道住宅"。目标是增加租赁住房供应，同时尽量减少对重新划分的社区的干扰。我们利用这一监管变化来估计密度增加对附近单位的外部性程度。我们发现，即使是这种“温和”的致密化也会对邻近的房产产生负面影响。此负面溢出对于高价值的房产来说最强，对于中位数和低价值的房产则不存在。我们的研究结果表明，增加密度的成本和收益在很大程度上取决于邻里类型。

Abstract:Single-family zoning is often defended as necessary to preserve neighbourhood amenities, but it is also blamed for making housing less affordable by constraining supply. In 2009, the City of Vancouver rezoned 95% of single-family areas to allow small accessory dwelling units (ADUs) or “laneway homes” behind residential structures. The goal was to increase rental housing supply with minimal disruption to rezoned neighbourhoods. We exploit this regulatory change to estimate the magnitude of externalities onto nearby units from increases in density. We find that even this “gentle” densification negatively affects neighbouring properties. This negative spillover is strongest for higher-valued properties and non-existent for median and lower-valued homes. Our findings illustrate that the costs and benefits of added density depend importantly on neighbourhood type.

论文原文：Thomas Davidoff, Andrey Pavlov, Tsur Somerville. (2022). Not in my neighbour’s back yard? Laneway homes and neighbours’ property values. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103405. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103405.

6.一种城市土地利用模型中交通改善优化评估的新方法

摘要：在最优情况下，无穷小的运输改进所节省的成本和资源是相等的。这种改进改变了均衡分配。然而，在第一最佳经济体中，根据包络定理，这种重新分配不具有一阶效应；因此，可以在改进前的分配中衡量节省的资源。当改进前的分配以实际位置表示时，节省的资源等于改进所引起的总运输成本的减少。通过使用 Arnott 和 Stiglitz（1981）首次引入的变量变换，本文推导出了一种评估交通改善最优性的新方法。我们用交通成本位置而不是物理位置来表示改善前的分配。从这个角度来看，交通改善通过产生新的土地来改变城市的交通成本形态。最优性意味着在改善前租金评估的产生土地的总差额土地租金等于交通改善的成本。最优性是指改善前的租金这一事实仅具有政策相关性，例如在交通改善的影响评估中。本文展示了这种最优性的普遍性，从这种替代的角度综合并重新解释了文献中的结果，并讨论了它产生的一些见解。

Abstract:At the optimum, the cost of, and resource savings from an infinitesimal transportation improvement are equal. The improvement changes the equilibrium allocation. In first-best economies, however by the envelope theorem, this reallocation does not have a first-order effect; therefore, the resource savings can be measured at the pre-improvement allocation. When the pre-improvement allocation is expressed in terms of physical location, the resource savings equal the reduction in the aggregate transportation costs induced by the improvement. By using a transformation of variables first introduced in Arnott and Stiglitz (1981), this paper derives a new way of evaluating the optimality of a transportation improvement. We express the pre-improvement allocation in terms of the transportation cost location instead of the physical location. From this perspective, the transportation improvement changes the transportation cost shape of the city by essentially generating new land. The optimality implies that the aggregate differential land rent of the generated land evaluated at the pre-improvement rents equals the cost of the transportation improvement. The fact that the optimality refers to the pre-improvement rents only carries policy relevance, say in the impact evaluation of the transportation improvement. This paper demonstrates the generality of this optimality, synthesizes and reinterprets the results in the literature from this alternative perspective, and discusses some insights that it generates.

论文原文：Abu Nur Rashed Ahmed, Yuichiro Yoshida, Richard James Arnott. (2022). A new way of evaluating the optimality of a transportation improvement in a class of urban land use models. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103406. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103406.

7.分解投资补贴对就业的影响

摘要：大多数政府通过提供旨在促进经济活动和当地就业的补贴来解决欠发达地区的经济问题。地方化政策对企业可能在哪里获得补贴施加了限制，但它们通常对被补贴企业必须雇用谁施加很少的限制。使用意大利公司和工人的行政数据，我们采用多断点回归不连续设计从实证评估和分解替代或建立新资本的实质性激励措施的就业效应。我们的实证策略可以确定新员工的地理来源和劳动力市场状况。结果显示，大多数新员工来自劳动力市场的新进入者，特别是年轻人和学生，而流离失所的影响是有限的。似乎有补贴的公司倾向于保留他们最有价值的员工，并雇用更多合格的年轻人。总体而言，我们发现只有适度的空间分散效应，或者可能是对当地劳动力市场的挤出。

Abstract:Most governments tackle the economic issues of underdeveloped areas by offering subsidies aimed at fostering economic activities and local employment. Localized policies put constraints on where businesses may locate to receive subsidies, but they generally place few restrictions on whom subsidized businesses must hire. Using administrative data on firms and workers in Italy, we adopt a multi-cutoff regression discontinuity design to empirically assess and decompose the employment effect of substantial incentives for the replacement or establishment of new capital. Our empirical strategy allows identifying the geographical origin and labor market status of new hires. The results show how the majority of recruits come from new entrants to the labor market, in particular, young people and students, while displacement effects are limited. It appears that subsidized companies tend to keep their most valuable staff and hire more qualified young people. Overall, we find only a modest spatial dispersion of the effects or a possible crowding-out of the local labor market.

论文原文：Augusto Cerqua, Guido Pellegrini. (2022). Decomposing the employment effects of investment subsidies. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103408. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103408.

8.慢车道生活：雅加达公共交通的意外后果

摘要：我们研究了 2002 年至 2010 年世界上最大的 BRT 系统之一 TransJakarta 如何影响印度尼西亚雅加达的通勤结果。使用规划线路进行识别，我们发现 BRT 车站的邻近性既没有减少车辆拥有量，也没有减少出行时间，也没有增加通勤流量。相反， BRT 加剧了服务走廊沿线的拥堵。为了评估福利效应，我们校准了具有多个可聚集运输网络的定量空间一般均衡模型。反事实模拟表明，实施改进，包括提高扩建走廊的质量，将仅以适度的成本即可显著改善福利。

Abstract:We study how TransJakarta, one of the worlds largest BRT systems, impacted commuting outcomes in Jakarta, Indonesia from 2002 to 2010. Using planned lines for identification, we find that BRT station proximity neither reduced vehicle ownership nor travel times, and it did not increase commuter flows. Instead, the BRT exacerbated congestion along service corridors. To evaluate welfare effects, we calibrate a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model with multiple congestible transport networks. Counterfactual simulations suggest that implementation improvements, including increasing the quality of expansion corridors, would significantly improve welfare with only modest costs.

论文原文：Arya Gaduh, Tadeja Gračner, Alexander D. Rothenberg. (2022). Life in the slow lane: Unintended consequences of public transit in Jakarta. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103411. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103411.

9.家庭抵押贷款再融资决策受邻居影响，尤其是种族因素

摘要：邻里同伴效应已被证明会影响家庭公开可观测的决定，但它们如何影响私人决策，如抵押贷款再融资，目前尚不清楚。使用精确的地理定位数据和最近邻研究设计，我们发现，如果 50 米范围内的邻居最近进行了再融资，那么家庭再融资的可能性要高出 7% 。与口碑机制一致，当邻居就住在附近时，社会影响效应更强；当业主不是居住者时，社会影响效应更弱；当邻居和业主属于同一种族时，社会影响效应更强。我们的研究结果表明，邻里同伴效应在解释再融资活动的区域差异方面发挥着重要作用。

Abstract:Neighborhood peer effects have been shown to affect households publicly observable decisions, but how they affect private decisions, like mortgage refinancing, remains unclear. Using precisely geolocated data and a nearest-neighbor research design, we find that households are 7% more likely to refinance if a neighbor within 50 m has recently refinanced. Consistent with a word-of-mouth mechanism, social influence effects are stronger when neighbors live especially nearby, weaker when owners are non-occupants, and stronger when neighbors and owners are of the same race. Our results suggest an important role for neighborhood peer effects in explaining regional variation in refinancing activity.

论文原文：W. Ben McCartney, Avni M. Shah. (2022). Household mortgage refinancing decisions are neighbor influenced, especially along racial lines. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103409. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103409.

10.全市停车政策和交通：来自阿姆斯特丹的证据

摘要：我们研究了全市停车政策对停车和交通需求的影响。使用阿姆斯特丹市路边停车价格的大幅上涨，我们发现该政策导致路边停车需求大幅下降，这并没有被道外需求的增长所抵消。停车需求的整体减少意味着交通量减少 2%-3% ，这一点已通过交通流量数据得到证实。晚高峰期间交通流量的下降幅度较大，这表明停车价格在晚高峰期有效减少拥堵，但在早高峰期则不那么有效。

Abstract:We examine the effect of citywide parking policy on parking and traffic demand. Using a large increase in on-street parking prices for the city of Amsterdam, we show that the policy caused a substantial drop in on-street parking demand, which is not offset by an increase in off-street demand. The overall reduction in parking demand implies a 2% – 3% reduction in traffic, which is confirmed with traffic flow data. The decline in traffic is larger during the evening peak, which indicates that parking prices are effective in reducing congestion in the evening peak but less so in the morning peak.

论文原文：Francis Ostermeijer, Hans Koster, Leonardo Nunes, Jos van Ommeren. (2022). Citywide parking policy and traffic: Evidence from Amsterdam. Journal of Urban Economics, 128, 103418. DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103418.