《ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS》| 实施为期10年的区域生态系统服务付费计划是否可持续基于家庭生计视角的实证分析
摘要：在中国密云水库上游地区实施了10年的“水田转旱地”(PLDL)计划面临着可持续发展的挑战。因为它对家庭生计的积极影响逐渐减弱，参与家庭对该项目有一定的消极反应。本研究采用准实验方法，在河北省滦平县和丰宁县进行了实地调查。本文采用双重差分倾向得分匹配 (PSM-DID)方法，定量评价了PLDL计划对家庭生计收入和收入结构的平均效应和异质性效应，并分析了其影响机制。PLDL对家庭人均总收入的影响在实施的10年中显著增加，非农收入的影响显著增加，农业收入的影响显著减少。然而，不断上涨的物价指数削弱了这些对家庭总收入的积极影响。并且通过异质性分析发现，PLDL对不同特征的家庭影响不同，家庭特征包括从住所到次级河流的距离、户主的年龄和健康状况等方面。PLDL项目有助于增加农村土地和劳动力的流动性，进一步改变了家庭生计活动。研究结果有助于形成以家庭生计为基础的可持续实施PLDL的建议。
关键词：水田转旱地项目；可持续发展；家庭生计；PSM-DID；密云水库
Abstract: The Paddy Land-to-Dry Land (PLDL) program, implemented in the upstream area of the Miyun Reservoir in China for 10 years, faces sustainability challenges. The issues stem from negative household responses due to the gradual weakening of its positive effects on household livelihoods. This study conducted a field survey based on a quasi-experimental method in the Luanping and Fengning Counties, Hebei Province. The average and heterogeneity effects of the PLDL program on household livelihoods regarding income and income structure were quantitatively evaluated, and the influence mechanisms were analyzed using the propensity score matching, difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method. The PLDL's impacts on total household income per capita significantly increased during the 10 years of implementation, with a significant increase impacts on off-farm income and a decrease impacts on agricultural income. However, rising price indices have weakened these positive impacts on total household income. The impacts differed with respect to the distance from residence to the secondary river, and the age and health of the household head. The PLDL program contributed to increasing liquidity of rural land and labor, further altering household livelihood activities. The results enabled recommendations to be formed regarding sustainable implementation of the PLDL based on household livelihoods.
原文链接：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919317811?via%3Dihub
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