国外权威期刊目录 Journal of International Economics ·国际经济学期刊（总第168期）
期刊介绍
Journal of International Economics 是公认的国际经济学领域顶级期刊，是SSCI的一区期刊，也是教育部认可的12本经济学国际顶级期刊之一。该期刊旨在作为国际经济学所有领域的理论和实证研究的主要渠道。这些包括但不限于以下内容：贸易模式，商业政策；国际机构；汇率；开放经济等。
本期期卷：Volume 135
发表日期：March 2022
来源：https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-international-economics/vol/135/suppl/C
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2022年3月刊合集（卷135）
目 录
（1）
Financial shocks, credit spread, and the international credit channel
金融冲击、信用利差和国际信贷渠道
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Andrej Sokol
关键词：SVAR；信贷渠道；国际传递；外部工具；符号限制；金融冲击；货币政策冲击；信息冲击
（2）
What price index should central banks target? An open economy analysis
各国央行的目标物价指数应该是多少？开放经济分析
Misaki Matsumura
关键词：物价指数；小型开放经济；最优货币政策；目标
（3）
The effects of permanent monetary shocks on exchange rates and uncovered interest ratedifferentials
永久性货币冲击对汇率和未掩盖利率的影响
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Martín Uribe
关键词：汇率；暂时性货币冲击；未掩盖利率平价；新费希尔效应；投资组合调整成本
（4）
Financial integration and the co-movement of economy activity: Evidence from U.S. states
金融一体化与经济活动的协同运动：来自美国各州的证据
Martin R. Goetz, Juan Carlos Gozzi
关键词：银行业一体化；同步化；金融放松管制；商业周期
（5）
Demand risk and diversification through international trade
通过国际贸易实现贸易风险和多样化
Federico Esposito
关键词：需求不确定性；风险分散；贸易福利收益；引力方程
（6）
Technology, market structure and the gains from trade
技术、市场结构和贸易收益
Giammario Impullitti, Omar Licandro, PontusRendahl
关键词：贸易收益; 寡头垄断; 内源性标记; 市场集中度; 创新; 异质性公司
（7）
Unequal gains, prolonged pain: A model of protectionist overshooting and escalation
不平等的收益，持久的痛苦：保护主义过度和升级的典范
Emily Blanchard, Gerald Willmann
关键词：民粹主义; 保护主义; 过冲; 充满活力的政治经济; 人力资本; 教育; 重叠的世代; 内生关税
（8）
Foreign currency loans and credit risk: Evidence fromU.S. banks
外币贷款和信用风险：来自美国的证据银行
Friederike Niepmann, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr
关键词：跨境银行业务; 汇率; 信用风险; 企业贷款
（9）
The real effects of invoicing exports in dollars
以美元开具出口发票的实际影响
Antoine Berthou, Guillaume Horny, Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier,
关键词：美元发票; 贸易融资; 企业层面的出口
（10）
Government spending during sudden stop crises
突如其来的危机中的政府支出
Siming Liu
关键词：与国家相关的乘数; 费舍尔的债务通缩; 突然停止危机; 名义工资刚度下调
（11）
Invoicing and the dynamics of pricing-to-market: Evidence from UK export prices around the Brexit referendum
发票和定价对市场的动态：英国脱欧公投前后英国出口价格的证据
Giancarlo Corsetti, Meredith Crowley, Lu Han
关键词：汇率; 通过; 标记弹性; 车辆货币; 主导货币; 公司层面数据
1
Financial shocks, credit spread, and the international credit channel
金融冲击、信用利差和国际信贷渠道
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Andrej Sokol
Abstract
We provide evidence on the international transmission of US financial shocks, and compare their effects to monetary policy and central bank information shocks in a two-country SVAR for the US and the UK. Adverse financial shocks trigger a contraction in the US economy and an increase in credit spreads. The tightening in US credit conditions is quickly transmitted internationally，leading to an increase in credit spreads and a slowdown in economic activity in the UK. As for monetary policy and central bank information shocks, cross-country comovement in credit spreads amplifies the impact of financial shocks on the real economy. Our findings support the notion of an ‘international credit channel’ as a key transmission mechanism for cross-country spillovers.
摘 要
我们提供了美国金融冲击在国际上传递的证据，并将其影响与美国和英国两国SVAR中的货币政策和央行信息冲击进行了比较。不利的金融冲击引发美国经济萎缩，信贷利差扩大。美国信贷状况收紧迅速在国际上传导，导致信贷利差增加，英国经济活动放缓。在货币政策和央行信息冲击方面，信用利差的跨国协动放大了金融冲击对实体经济的影响。我们的发现支持“国际信贷渠道”作为跨国溢出的关键传导机制的概念。
2
What price index should central banks target? An open economy analysis
各国央行的目标物价指数应该是多少？开放经济分析
Misaki Matsumura
Abstract
What price index should central banks target wheneconomies are open and exposed to international price shocks? This paperderives the optimal price index by solving the Ramsey problem in a New Keynesian small open economy model with an arbitrary number of sectors. This approach improves on the existing theoretical benchmarks by (1) making anexplicit distinction between the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI), (2) incorporating exogenous internationalprice shocks, and (3) allowing different pricing regimes across sectors. Qualitatively, the analytical expression of the optimal price index suggests thatpopular indices, such as the core/headline CPI and thePPI, are suboptimal because they ignore the effect of volatile export price inflation on the trade surplus and the heterogeneity inprice stickiness. Quantitatively, when a 35-sector modelis applied to 40 countries, stabilizing the optimalprice index yields significantly higher welfare than alternative indices.
摘 要
当经济开放并受到国际价格冲击的影响时，央行应该以什么价格指数为目标？本门通过求解具有任意部门数的新凯恩斯小型开放经济模型中的Ramsey问题，导出了最优价格指数。这一方法通过（1）明确区分消费者物价指数（CPI）和生产者物价指数（PPI），（2）纳入外生的国际价格冲击，以及（3）允许不同部门之间有不同的定价制度，改进了现有的理论基准。定性地，最优物价指数的解析表达式表明，流行的指数，如核心/整体CPI和PPI，是次优的，因为它们忽略了波动性较大的出口价格通胀对贸易顺差的影响和价格粘性的异质性。从数量上讲，当35部门模型应用于40个国家时，稳定最优价格指数比替代指数产生的福利要高得多。
3
Innovation in economically developed and lagging European regions: A configurational analysis
欧洲经济发达与落后地区的创新：配置分析
Nikolaos Filippopoulos, Georgios Fotopoulos
Abstract
Regional innovation in Europe is analyzed with Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, distinguishing between different economic development level categories and between innovation performance groups within each category. Different mechanisms were identified based on varying conjunctions of business and public sector R&D, spatial proximity to external R&D, networks of collaborations, tolerance and inclusion, and human capital. More developed regions present four main mechanisms that lead to regional innovation. Namely, a technologically driven mechanism, a business R&D driven technological mechanism, a mechanism driven primarily by internal R&D competencies and tolerance and inclusion, and a general path to regional innovation, supporting a public R&D driven technological mechanism. When the analysis focuses on moderate innovators, the absence of skilled human capital is added as a relevant condition owing primarily to the lack of technological and technical skills in some regions. For lagging regions, the relevant innovation definition excludes patenting as these regions focus on ‘softer’ innovation aspects than technological innovation. Innovation in lagging regions is primarily driven by public R&D supported by tolerance and inclusion or by networks of collaboration. The latter might work as a condition compensating for often unfavorable geography.
摘 要
采用模糊集定性比较分析对欧洲的区域创新进行分析，区分不同的经济发展水平类别以及每个类别中的创新绩效组。根据商业和公共部门研发的不同结合，与外部研发的空间接近度，合作网络，宽容和包容以及人力资本，确定了不同的机制。较发达区域提出了导致区域创新的四个主要机制。也就是说，一个技术驱动的机制，一个商业研发驱动的技术机制，一个主要由内部研发能力和宽容和包容驱动的机制，以及一个区域创新的一般路径，支持公共研发驱动的技术机制。当分析侧重于中等程度的创新者时，缺乏熟练的人力资本被添加为一个相关条件，这主要是由于一些区域缺乏技术和工艺技能。对于落后地区，相关的创新定义不包括专利，因为这些地区侧重于"软"创新方面，而不是技术创新。落后地区的创新主要是由宽容和包容或合作网络支持的公共研发推动的。后者可能作为补偿（通常是不利的）地理条件。
4
Financial integration and the co-movement of economy activity: Evidence from U.S. states
金融一体化与经济活动的协同运动：来自美国各州的证据
Federico Esposito
Abstract
We analyze the effect of the geographic expansion of banks across U.S. states on the co-movement of economic activity between states. Exploiting the removal of interstate banking restrictions to construct time-varying instrumental variables at the state-pair level, we find that bilateral banking integration increases output co-movement between states. The effect offinancial integration depends on the nature of the idiosyncratic shocks faced by states and is stronger for financially dependent industries. Finally, we show that integration increases the similarity of bank lending fluctuations between states and contributes to the transmission of deposit shocks across states.
摘 要
我们分析了美国各州银行在地理上的扩张对各州之间经济活动协同移动的影响。利用取消州际银行限制在状态对水平构建时变工具变量，我们发现双边银行一体化增加了州与州之间的产出协同移动。金融一体化的效果取决于国家面临的特殊冲击的性质，对于金融依赖型行业来说，金融一体化的效果更强。最后，我们发现，一体化增加了银行贷款波动在州与州之间的相似性，并有助于存款冲击的跨州传递。
5
Demand risk and diversification through international trade
通过国际贸易实现贸易风险和多样化
Federico Esposito
Abstract
I develop a theory of risk diversification through geography. In a general equilibrium trade model with monopolistic competition and stochastic demand，risk-averse entrepreneurs exploit the spatial correlation of demand across countries to lower thevariance of their global sales. The model implies that both the probability of entry and trade flows to a country are increasing in the “Diversification Index”，which depends on the multilateral covariance of the country's demand with all other markets. The risk diversification behavior can lead to higher welfare gains from trade than the ones predicted by trade models with risk neutrality. Using a panel of international sales of Portuguese firms，I estimate “risk-augmented” gravity regressions, which show that the Diversification Index significantly affects trade patterns at the extensive and intensive margins. In general equilibrium, the risk diversification channel increases welfare gains from trade by 17% relative to trade models with risk neutrality.
摘 要
我通过地理学发展了一套风险分散理论。在具有垄断竞争和随机需求的一般均衡贸易模型中，规避风险的企业家利用跨国需求的空间相关性来降低其全球销售额的方差。该模型表明，在“多元化指数”中，进入一国的概率和贸易流量都在增加，这取决于该国需求于所有其他市场的多变协方差。风险分散行为可以带来比风险中性模型预测的更高的贸易福利收益。利用葡萄牙公司的国际销售小组，我估计了“风险放大”的重力回归，这表明多元化指数在广泛和密集的利润率上显著影响贸易模式。在一般均衡条件下，风险分散渠道比风险中性的交易模式增加了17%的贸易福利收益。
6
Technology, market structure and the gains from trade
技术、市场结构与贸易收益
Giammario Impullitti, Omar Licandro, PontusRendahl
Abstract
We study the gains from trade in a model with oligopolistic competition, heterogeneous firms and innovation. Our key finding is that a trade-inducedincrease in market concentration can be an important source of the gains fromtrade. Foreign competition puts downward pressure on profitability which reduces the equilibrium number of firms, but increases their size. This rise inconcentration increases welfare via two channels: increasing returns inproduction, and a scale effect on innovation. In a calibrated version of the model we show that concentration is a main driver of the gains from trade,mostly via its stimulating effect on innovation–the contribution of increasing returns is small. Moreover, lowering trade costs reduce the inefficiency produced by “reciprocal dumping”, leading to substantial gains. In contrast, the associated reduction in markup dispersion has only a negligible effect.
摘 要
我们在一个具有寡头垄断竞争、异质企业和创新的模型中研究了贸易收益。我们的主要发现是，贸易导致的市场集中度的提高可能是贸易收益的一个重要来源。外国竞争给盈利能力带来下行压力，从而减少了公司的均衡数量，但增加了它们的规模。这种集中度的提高通过两个渠道增加福利: 增加生产回报,以及对创新产生规模效应。在该模型的校准版本中，我们表明，集中度是贸易收益的主要驱动力，主要是通过其对创新的刺激作用-回报增加的贡献很小。此外，降低贸易成本可以减少“互惠倾销”带来的低效率，从而带来可观的收益。相比之下，标记分散度的相关减少只会产生微不足道的影响。
7
Unequal gains, prolonged pain: A model of protectionist overshooting and escalation
不平等的收益，持久的痛苦：保护主义过度和升级的典范
Emily Blanchard, Gerald Willmann
Abstract
We develop a model of democratic responses to macroeconomic shocks, and show that when economic adjustment is slower than potential political change, economic shocks can trigger populist surges. Applied to trade policy, we show that unexpected changes in world prices or skill biased technological change can induce a surge in economic nationalism and trade protection. Over time, the initial protectionist surge will gradually diminish if and only if educational gains enable less-skilled workers to catch up with the overall economy. The more unequal the initial distribution of the returns to human capital, the greater and longer-lasting the protectionist backlash will be: unequal gains, prolonged pain. Key data markers suggested by the model exhibit patterns consistent with recent surges in protectionism in the US and UK.
摘 要
我们开发了一个对宏观经济冲击做出民主反应的模型，并表明当经济调整慢于潜在的政治变革时,经济冲击可以引发民粹主义浪潮。将其应用于贸易政策,我们表明,世界价格的意外变化或技能偏向的技术变革会导致经济民族主义和贸易保护的激增。随着时间的推移，当且仅当教育收益使低技能工人能够赶上整体经济时,最初的保护主义浪潮才会逐渐减弱。人力资本收益的初始分配越不平等,保护主义的反弹就会越大，持续时间越长:收益不平等,痛苦持续时间更长。该模型显示的关键数据指标显示出与美国和英国最近保护主义激增一致的模式。
8
Foreign currency loans and credit risk: Evidence fromU.S. banks
外币贷款与信用风险：来自美国银行的证据
Friederike Niepmann, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr
Abstract
When firms borrow in foreign currency and are not perfectly hedged, exchange rate change scan affect their ability to repay the debt. U.S. loan-level data show that a 10 percent depreciation of the local currency quarter-to-quarter increases theprobability that a firm becomes past due on its loans by 42 basis points forfirms with foreign currency debt relative to those with local currency debt.This increase is economically significant, given a baseline probability of 20basis points, and indicates that exchange rate risk of borrowers can translateinto credit risk for banks. Firms are more likely to borrow in foreign currencyif they belong to industries that generate more income abroad and if a UIP deviation makes foreign currency loans cheaper. The paper establishes additional facts on large U.S. banks’ international corporate loan portfolios, offering a perspectivecomplementary to that provided by syndicated loan data.
摘 要
当公司以外币借款,并且没有完全对冲时,汇率变化会影响它们偿还债务的能力。美国贷款水平数据显示,对于背负外币债务的公司来说,本币每季度贬值10%，公司逾期贷款的可能性比背负本币债务的公司增加42个基点。考虑到基线概率为20个基点,这一增长在经济上意义重大,并表明借款人的汇率风险可以转化为银行的信用风险。如果公司属于在国外产生更多收入的行业,并且如果UIP偏离使得外币贷款更便宜，那么它们更有可能以外币借款。这份报告建立了有关美国大型银行国际企业贷款组合的更多事实，为银团贷款数据提供了一个补充视角。
9
The real effects of invoicing exports in dollars
用美元为出口开具发票的实际效果
Antoine Berthou, Guillaume Horny, Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier
Abstract
Exporting firms face foreign exchange risk when the export contract is invoiced in a foreign currency. For instance, for firms located outside of the United States, the US dollar is often used as a vehicle currency. The cost of hedging against this risk represents an additional trade cost for exporters, which is specific to the targeted destination. In this paper, we exploit an episode of heightened tensions in the USD/EUR foreign exchange market in July 2011, which increased the cost of hedging against US dollar fluctuations for French exporters. Using disaggregated information on bank balance sheets, bank-firm relationships and individual export flows for France, we show that exporters with a higher propensity to use hedging instruments reduced more their exports to “US dollar destinations” after this shock. For the average “treated” individual export flow in oursample, the increased hedging cost is equivalent to a counterfactual rise intrade costs by about 3 percentage points.
摘 要
当出口合同以外币开具发票时,出口企业面临外汇风险。例如，对于位于美国以外的公司，美元经常被用作车辆货币。对冲这一风险的成本对出口商来说是一项额外的贸易成本，这是特定于目标目的地的。在本文中,我们利用了2011年7月美元/欧元外汇市场紧张局势加剧的一幕,这增加了法国出口商对冲美元波动的成本。利用法国银行资产负债表、银企关系和个人出口流量的分类信息,我们发现,在这次冲击之后,倾向于使用套期保值工具的出口商对“美元目的地”的出口减少得更多。对于我们样本中平均的“经处理”的个人出口流量，增加的对冲成本相当于贸易成本的反事实上升约3个百分点。
10
Government spending duringsudden stop crises
突如其来的危机中的政府支出
Siming Liu
Abstract
This paper examines the state-dependent multipliers of government spending in sudden stop economies. First, I provide cross-country evidence that an increase ingovernment spending is more effective in stimulating consumption andappreciating the real exchange rate in sudden stop crises than in normal times.To rationalize this, I then build a small open economy model with a collateral constraint on international borrowing. During a financial crisis, an adverse international shock reduces consumption and lowers the market value of incomeas collateral. The lowered income, in turn, tightens the financial constraintand sets in a debt-deflation mechanism. In this context, a fiscal expansion appreciates the real exchange rate and drives in capital flows when the financial constraint is binding, thus creating a larger multiplier on private consumption. The difference in multipliers across financial states also depends on the exchange rate environment of a country.
摘 要
本文研究了突然停止经济中政府支出的国家依赖乘数。首先,我提供了跨国证据，证明在突然停止危机时,增加政府支出在刺激消费和升值实际汇率方面比正常时期更有效。为了使这一点合理化,我随后建立了一个小型开放型经济模型，并对国际借款进行了附带约束。在金融危机期间，不利的国际冲击会减少消费，降低作为抵押品的收入的市场价值。收入的降低反过来又收紧了财政约束,并导致了债务通缩机制。在这一背景下，财政扩张会升值实际汇率，并在金融约束具有约束力的情况下推动资本流动，从而对私人消费产生更大的乘数。不同金融州乘数的差异还取决于一个国家的汇率环境。
11
Invoicing and the dynamics of pricing-to-market: Evidence from UK export prices around the Brexit referendum
发票和定价对市场的动态：英国脱欧公投前后英国出口价格的证据
Giancarlo Corsetti, Meredith Crowley, Lu Han
Abstract
We provide micro-econometric evidence that, following the large and persistentsterling depreciation after the Brexit referendum, on impact, exchange ratepass-through (ERPT) was complete for transactions invoiced in producer currency and low for sales invoiced either in a vehicle or in the destination marketcurrency. Yet these differences strikingly narrowed within six quarters. A weaker currency did not translate into a persistent gain in price competitiveness for UK exports. At a granular level we find that UK exportersinvoice in multiple currencies—even when shipping a product to the same destination—and switch currencies over time. Remarkably, we fail to detect significant changesin the relative shares of invoicing currencies in response to the Brexit shock. Last but not least, we find that UK firms price-to-market, i.e., adjust markups to bilateral exchange rate and CPI movements, only when they invoice sales inthe destination-market currency.
摘 要
我们提供的微观计量经济学证据表明,在英国退欧公投后英镑持续大幅贬值后,受影响，以生产者货币开具发票的交易的汇率传递(ERPT)是完整的,而以车辆或目的地市场货币开具发票的销售的汇率传递(ERPT)较低。然而,这些差异在六个季度内显著缩小。疲软的货币并没有转化为英国出口产品价格竞争力的持续增强。在细粒度层面上,我们发现英国出口商以多种货币开具发票-即使是在将一种产品运往同一目的地时-并随着时间的推移更换货币。值得注意的是,我们未能检测到针对英国退欧冲击而开具发票的货币的相对份额发生了重大变化。最后但同样重要的是,我们发现英国公司只有在以目的地市场货币开具销售发票时,才会按市价计价,即根据双边汇率和CPI变动调整加价。
编辑：孙杜霞
审核：李文清
资料来源于期刊网址，仅供学术交流使用，不得用于商业用途！来源：
https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-international-economics/vol/135/suppl/C
往期回顾：
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