国外权威期刊目录IE·国际经济（总第182期）

期刊介绍

IE出版应用国际经济学的高质量原创研究。涵盖的主题包括贸易、贸易政策、宏观经济和金融。IE是一本同行评审期刊，致力于发表应用国际经济学领域的研究成果。该杂志特别欢迎实证贡献，包括但不限于国际贸易、商业政策、开放经济宏观经济学、国际金融、汇率、金融和货币政策、经济发展、移民和要素流动等主题。

本期期卷：Volume 169

发表日期：May 2022

来源：https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-economics/vol/169/suppl/C

或点击文末“阅读原文”

2022年5月刊合集（卷169）

目     录

（1）

A proposal of a suspicion of tax fraud indicator based on Google trends to foresee Spanish tax revenues

基于谷歌趋势预测西班牙税收的税务欺诈指标的提议

Manuel Monge, Carlos Poza, Sofía Borgia

关键词：Fiscal fraud; Composite indicator; Google trends; Fractional integration; FCVAR model; Wavelets

（2）

The financial development impact of financial globalization revisited: A focus on OECD countries

重新审视金融全球化对金融发展的影响:以经合组织国家为主要研究对象

Olufemi Adewale Aluko, Eric Evans Osei Opoku

关键词：Financial globalization; Financial development; Panel quantile estimation; OECD

（3）

Measuring the economic efficiency performance in Latin American and Caribbean countries: An empirical evidence from stochastic production frontier and data envelopment analysis

拉丁美洲和加勒比国家经济效率绩效的测度:基于随机生产前沿和数据包络分析的经验检验

Matheus Koengkan, José Alberto Fuinhas, Emad Kazemzadeh, Fariba Osmani, Nooshin Karimi Alavijeh, Anna Auza, Mônica Teixeira

关键词：Stochastic frontier analysis; Economic performance; Latin American and Caribbean countries

（4）

The determinants and cyclicality of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from East Africa

财政政策的决定因素和周期性：基于对东非国家的经验检验

Joseph Mawejje, Nicholas M. Odhiambo

关键词：Fiscal policy; Tax revenue; Government expenditure; Cyclicality; East Africa

（5）

The impact of economic policy uncertainty on banks' non-interest income activities

经济政策的不确定性对银行非利息收入活动的影响

Whelsy Boungou, Charles Mawusi

关键词：Economic policy uncertainty; Bank diversification; Negative interest rate environment

（6）

Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation

国内投资是否会对通胀目标的制定产生影响？一项综合控制调研       

Nadine McCloud

关键词：Domestic investment; Inflation targeting; Treatment effect; Synthetic control method; Rational inattention

（7）

Mapping the emergence and diffusion of climate-related financial policies: Evidence from a cluster analysis on G20 countries

与气候相关的金融政策的出现与延展：基于G20国家的集群分析                

Paola D'Orazio

关键词：Climate policy; Climate-related financial policy; Climate risks; Green finance; Policy adoption; Cluster analysis

（8）

Trade shocks and labour market resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the franc zone response differently? 

撒哈拉以南非洲的贸易冲击和劳动力市场弹性：法郎区的状况是否不同

Tii N. Nchofoung

关键词：Commodity terms of trade; Resilience; Franc zone; PVAR; PSTR

（9）

Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond   

墨西哥需要转变财政政策：为应对Covid-19和今后发展

Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, Keiko Honjo, Mehdi Raissi

关键词：Covid-19; Fiscal response; Tax; Social safety nets; General

equilibrium model

（10）

Invoicing Currency and Symmetric Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Tariffs: Evidence from Malawian Imports from the EU

计价货币及汇率和关税间的对称影响：基于欧盟从马拉维进口的分析

Angella Faith Montfaucon

关键词：Euro area; Invoicing currency; Tariff pass-through; Exchange rates; Vehicle pricing

（11）

Economic sentiments and international risk sharing

经济情绪和国际风险分担

Daragh Clancy, Lorenzo Ricci

关键词：Confidence; Loss aversion; Risk sharing; Uncertainty

（12）

Foreign investors and target firms’ financial structure

外国投资者和目标公司的财务架构

Lorenzo Bencivelli, Beniamino Pisicoli

关键词：FDIs; Firms' financial structure; Non-bank financing; Investment

（13）

Does something change in the oil market with the COVID-19 crisis?

COVID-19引发的危机是否会改变石油市场？

Dan Zhang, Arash Farnoosh, Frédéric Lantz

关键词：Oil market; Price discovery; Structural break

（14）

The impact of global value chain participation on income inequality

全球价值链的参与对收入不平等的影响

Nur Carpa, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso

关键词：Global Value Chain; Offshoring; Inequality; Gini; Correlated random effects; Eora

（15）

A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement

欧盟-南方共同市场协定的成立所产生的贸易和福利效应

Jacopo Timini, Francesca Viani

关键词：EU; Mercosur; Trade agreement; Structural gravity; General equilibrium

1

A proposal of a suspicion of tax fraud indicator based on Google trends to foresee Spanish tax revenues

基于谷歌趋势预测西班牙税收的税务欺诈指标的提议

Manuel Monge, Carlos Poza, Sofía Borgia

Abstract

This article contributes to the relationship between fiscal fraud and tax collection in the Spanish economy, creating a composite suspicion tax fraud indicator (STFI) based on Google Trends searches to study the dynamics and foresee tax revenues evolution in Spain. Also, we expand knowledge in the field of fraud tax indicators, following the UNODC (2020) and OECD (2016) recommendations. To this purpose, we apply factor analysis to create the composite indicator and, next, we utilize techniques centered on fractional integration (ARFIMA) and fractional cointegration VAR (FCVAR) to assess the STFI behavior against tax collection and GDP. The outcomes indicate that the differencing parameter d is less than 1 in all the time series analyzed. The tax collection and the leading indicator have similar statistical behavior (d = 0.49 and d = 0.40, respectively), which implies mean reversion. On the other hand, GDP will behave similarly to the other two time series, with d = 0.05, which means that the shocks will have a temporary effect on the GDP behavior, and these effects will disappear by themselves in the short term and in less time than the other two time series. FCVAR results indicate a short-lived shock duration due to the error correction term and their short-run stationary behavior. In the end, applying wavelet analysis, we determine that the composite suspicion tax fraud indicator maintains a negative association with tax collection, except in 2017 and 2018, when the high economic growth offsets the fiscal fraud.

摘 要

本文基于谷歌趋势搜索，创建了一个综合怀疑税务欺诈指标(STFI)，以研究西班牙的动态和预测税收收入的演变，有助于研究西班牙经济中财政欺诈和税收征收之间的关系。此外，根据联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室(2020年)和经合组织(2016年)的建议，我们扩大了在欺诈税收指标领域的知识。为此，我们应用因子分析来创建复合指标，然后，我们利用以部分整合(ARFIMA)和部分协整VAR (FCVAR)为中心的技术来评估STFI对税收和GDP的行为。结果表明，在所有被分析的时间序列中，差分参数d都小于1。税收征收率与先行指标具有相似的统计行为(d = 0.49, d = 0.40)，存在均值回归。另一方面,国内生产总值将行为类似于其他两个时间序列,用d = 0.05,这意味着冲击将会暂时影响GDP的行为,而这些影响在短期内会自行消失,用更少的时间比其他两个时间序列。fccvar结果表明，由于误差修正周期和它们的短期平稳行为，冲击持续时间较短。最后，应用小波分析，我们确定，除2017年和2018年经济高速增长抵消了财政欺诈外，综合怀疑税收欺诈指标与税收征管保持负相关。

2

The financial development impact of financial globalization revisited: A focus on OECD countries

重新审视金融全球化对金融发展的影响:以经合组织国家为主要研究对象

Olufemi Adewale Aluko, Eric Evans Osei Opoku

Abstract

In this empirical paper, we revisit the financial development impact of financial globalization using a panel dataset comprising the OECD countries for the period 1996–2017. We rely on a multidimensional financial development index and the KOF financial globalization index. We find that financial globalization has a positive impact on financial development. Considering the heterogeneity in the conditional distributions of financial development, we also discover that financial globalization favourably impacts financial development across all the conditional distributions (quantiles) albeit with varying magnitude. These findings are robust to the KOF de facto and de jure measures of financial globalization as well as an alternative measure of financial globalization–financial openness index.

摘 要

3

Measuring the economic efficiency performance in Latin American and Caribbean countries: An empirical evidence from stochastic production frontier and data envelopment analysis

拉丁美洲和加勒比国家经济效率绩效的测度:基于随机生产前沿和数据包络分析的经验检验

Matheus Koengkan, José Alberto Fuinhas, Emad Kazemzadeh, Fariba Osmani, Nooshin Karimi Alavijeh, Anna Auza, Mônica Teixeira

Abstract

The development of the global economy has raised concerns about economic efficiency and productivity. In this context, understanding the concepts of economic efficiency and productivity and the knowledge of the techniques available for their measurement are also of fundamental importance. Thus, the objective of the present study is to measure the economic efficiency performance of 14 countries from the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in the period from 1990 to 2017. Analysing the economic performance of these countries with linear Cobb-Douglas production function, two methods were used: the parametric stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA). Both approaches (SFA and DEA) show that Panama is the most economically efficient country in the LAC region, followed by Chile. Concerning other countries, the choice between the SFA and DEA models affects the ratings. Results indicate that Brazil (SFA) and Nicaragua (DAE) are the least economically efficient LAC countries.

摘 要

4

The determinants and cyclicality of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from East Africa

财政政策的决定因素和周期性：基于对东非国家的经验检验

Joseph Mawejje, Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Abstract

As part of the regional integration process, East African Community (EAC) member countries agreed upon macroeconomic convergence criteria that include, among others, harmonizing and restricting the level of fiscal deficits. However, achieving these targets has been faced with heightened vulnerabilities, including those related to the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and domestic policy slippages. Consequently, high fiscal deficits are fast leading to accumulation of debt. This paper investigates the macroeconomic determinants and cyclicality of fiscal policy in a panel of five EAC countries for the period 1980–2020. Using a combination of linear and nonlinear panel ARDL methods, long-run results show that the fiscal deficit is positively associated with current account balance, real per capita GDP, and interest rate; and negatively associated with the GDP deflator, grants, and debt service. Disaggregating fiscal balances into their revenue and expenditure components shows that government spending is procyclical, while tax effort is countercyclical. Specifically, both government expenditures and tax-to-GDP ratios are positively associated with real per capita GDP regardless of whether this relationship is observed during growth accelerations or decelerations. The size and statistical significance of short-run asymmetric effects of real per capita GDP on fiscal policy vary between countries.

摘 要

作为区域一体化进程的一部分，东非共同体成员国商定了宏观经济趋同标准，其中除其他外包括协调和限制财政赤字水平。然而，实现这些目标面临着更大的脆弱性，包括与全球金融危机、COVID-19大流行和国内政策滑坡有关的脆弱性。因此，高财政赤字正迅速导致债务积累。本文研究了1980-2020年期间五个EAC国家的宏观经济决定因素和财政政策的周期性。结合线性和非线性面板ARDL方法，长期结果表明，财政赤字与经常项目余额、实际人均GDP和利率呈正相关;与GDP平减指数、拨款和偿债负相关。将财政收支分成收入和支出两部分可以看出，政府支出是顺周期的，而税收努力是反周期的。具体来说，政府支出和税收占GDP的比例都与实际人均GDP呈正相关，无论这种关系是在增长加速还是减速期间观察到的。实际人均GDP对财政政策的短期非对称效应的规模和统计意义因国家而异。

5

The impact of economic policy uncertainty on banks' non-interest income activities

经济政策的不确定性对银行非利息收入活动的影响

Whelsy Boungou, Charles Mawusi

Abstract

This paper investigates how banks adjust their business model amid rising global economic uncertainty. Specifically, we analyze the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on banks' non-interest income activities, using a large panel dataset of 3913 banks operating in 9 countries over the period 2009–2018. We find no statistically significant effect of EPU on banks’ net non-interest income (NNII). Further analysis shows that the lack of impact on NNII is due to a reduction in gross non-interest income which was offset by a decrease in gross non-interest expenses. Our results also suggest that the likelihood of banks to diversify income amid high EPU is conditional on the negative interest rate environment.

摘 要

 本文研究银行如何在全球经济不确定性上升的情况下调整其业务模式。本文利用2009-2018年9个国家3913家银行的面板数据，分析了经济政策不确定性(EPU)对银行非利息收入活动的影响。我们发现EPU对银行的净非利息收入(NNII)没有统计学上的显著影响。进一步的分析表明，非利息收入毛额的减少被非利息开支毛额的减少所抵消，这对NNII没有影响。我们的研究结果也表明，银行在高EPU环境下实现收入多元化的可能性取决于负利率环境。

6

Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation

国内投资是否会对通胀目标的制定产生影响？一项综合控制调研  

 Nadine McCloud

Abstract

Some countries have adopted an Inflation Targeting (IT) regime to reduce inflation and inflation uncertainty: two factors the literature suggests firms put positive weight on when making outlay decisions that may affect aggregate domestic investment. This observation naturally leads to the question of whether domestic investment responds to IT. We apply the synthetic control method to developed and developing IT and non-IT countries to estimate the IT regime's causal effect on the domestic investment over time while addressing country heterogeneity. Adopting an IT regime had no short or long-run effect, at conventional levels of significance, on domestic investment in 21 out of 29 treated countries; this dominant pattern appears consistent with recent works on rational inattentive behaviour of firms. However, IT induced mainly long-run heterogeneous changes in domestic investment prices in 9 targeters, suggesting that supply constraints external to firms can also weaken the link between IT and domestic investment.

摘 要

 一些国家采用了通货膨胀目标(IT)制度，以减少通货膨胀和通货膨胀的不确定性:文献表明，企业在做出可能影响国内总投资的支出决策时，将这两个因素放在正权重上。这一观察结果自然引出了一个问题，即国内投资是否响应了IT。我们将综合控制方法应用于发达国家、发展中国家和非IT国家，以评估IT制度对国内投资的因果影响，同时解决国家异质性问题。在29个受处理国家中，有21个国家采用信息技术制度在传统意义上对国内投资没有短期或长期影响;这一主导模式似乎与最近关于公司理性疏忽行为的著作相一致。然而，IT在9个指标中主要诱导了国内投资价格的长期异质变化，这表明企业外部的供应约束也会削弱IT和国内投资之间的联系。

7

Mapping the emergence and diffusion of climate-related financial policies: Evidence from a cluster analysis on G20 countries

与气候相关的金融政策的出现与延展：基于G20国家的集群分析              

Paola D'Orazio

Abstract

Although the awareness about the climate-related financial risks and the need to scale up green finance is widespread globally, engagement in “active” climate-related financial policymaking varies across countries. Despite the progress in understanding the types of policies available at the country level, our knowledge of which factors influence the decision to adopt climate-related financial policies remains limited. This paper proposes an empirical analysis of the climate-related financial policy experiences of G20 countries as they are responsible for roughly 80 percent of global energy use and CO2 emissions. The cluster analysis considering the period from 2000 to 2018 shows some interesting results. First, the economy's carbon intensity and exposure to climate change matter, but the policy response to these factors is heterogeneous across clusters. Second, climate strategies and fiscal instruments are relevant only for first-wave adopters in high-income countries. Third, political characteristics, particularly the presence of an autocratic regime, are relevant for the Chinese case, calling to mind the “authoritarian environmentalism”. Fourth, the bandwagon, or geographical learning effect, plays a relevant role in all clusters.

摘 要

尽管全球普遍意识到气候相关的金融风险和扩大绿色金融规模的必要性，但各国在参与“积极”气候相关金融政策制定方面存在差异。尽管在了解国家一级现有政策类型方面取得了进展，但我们对哪些因素影响采取气候相关金融政策的决定的了解仍然有限。本文对G20国家气候相关金融政策的经验进行了实证分析，因为G20国家的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放约占全球的80%。从2000年到2018年的聚类分析显示了一些有趣的结果。首先，经济的碳强度和受气候变化影响的程度很重要，但各集群对这些因素的政策反应各不相同。第二，气候战略和财政工具只适用于高收入国家的第一波采用者。第三，政治特征，尤其是专制政权的存在，与中国的情况有关，让人想起“威权环保主义”。第四，从众效应(即地理学习效应)在所有集群中都起着相关作用。

8

Trade shocks and labour market resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the franc zone response differently?

撒哈拉以南非洲的贸易冲击和劳动力市场弹性：法郎区的状况是否不同 

Tii N. Nchofoung

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the impact of commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks on the labour market resilience of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, comparing the franc zone countries on the one hand, from the non-franc zone countries on the other hand. The results from the PVAR estimation indicate a positive impact of commodity terms of trade shocks on labour market resilience in SSA countries. This finding holds in both the franc zone and the non-franc zone countries. When robustness is checked through the PSTR, this positive relationship is established to be non-linear. The policy implications of the study invite the policy makers to diversify their economies to limit their heavy reliance on commodities.

摘 要

本文旨在评估商品贸易条件(CTOT)冲击对撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)国家劳动力市场弹性的影响，一方面比较法郎区国家，另一方面比较非法郎区国家。PVAR估计的结果表明商品贸易条件冲击对撒南地区国家劳动力市场弹性有积极影响。这一发现适用于法郎区和非法郎区国家。当通过PSTR检验鲁棒性时，这种正相关关系被确定为非线性的。这项研究的政策影响要求决策者使其经济多样化，以限制其对商品的严重依赖。

9

Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond    

墨西哥需要转变财政政策：为应对Covid-19和今后发展

Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, Keiko Honjo, Mehdi Raissi

Abstract

Mexico's fiscal response to the pandemic has been modest compared to its peers, reflecting the authorities' desire to not issue new debt for spending. This approach, however, resulted in a more severe recession in 2020 and a weaker economic recovery, notwithstanding spillovers from the United States. Balancing the need for stronger near-term fiscal support for the people and the recovery against medium-term discipline, this paper lays out an alternative strategy. We show that credibly announcing a pro-growth and inclusive medium-term fiscal reform upfront—including increased tax capacity, higher public investment and strengthened social safety nets—would open space for larger short-term support and close medium-term fiscal gaps. Model simulations suggest that this package would boost output, limit lasting economic damage from the pandemic, and put debt trajectory on a declining path in the medium term as tax reforms pay off and risk premia decline.

摘 要

与其他国家相比，墨西哥应对新冠肺炎疫情的财政措施一直比较温和，这反映出当局不希望为了支出而发行新债。然而，这种做法导致了2020年更严重的衰退和更弱的经济复苏，尽管美国的溢出效应。在为民众提供更强有力的短期财政支持和复苏与中期纪律之间进行权衡，本文提出了另一种策略。我们表明，令人信服地宣布一项促进增长和包容性的中期财政改革——包括提高税收能力、增加公共投资和加强社会安全网——将为更大的短期支持和填补中期财政缺口开辟空间。模型模拟表明，随着税收改革取得成效和风险溢价下降，该计划将提振产出，限制疫情造成的持久经济损害，并在中期内将债务轨迹置于下降轨道。

10

Invoicing Currency and Symmetric Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Tariffs: Evidence from Malawian Imports from the EU

计价货币及汇率和关税间的对称影响：基于欧盟从马拉维进口的分析

Angella Faith Montfaucon

Abstract

The response of import prices to exchange rates can be used to predict the effect of changes in trade policy, as the symmetric hypothesis asserts that the effect of tariffs and exchange rates on prices are identical. This paper examines whether the hypothesis holds in the context of various invoicing currencies, using transaction-level data of Malawian imports from the European Union (EU). The findings show that the U.S. dollar has the highest invoicing share, and the pass-through of exchange rate and tariff shocks on importers is high, but not necessarily equal, when the currency of invoicing is considered. Crucially, the tariff pass-through to prices is higher than the exchange rate pass-through, with important differences across countries, currencies and sectors. Thus, in order to predict the effects of trade policy, bilateral exchange rates may not be suitable for capturing exchange rate pass-through for small developing countries, especially import-dependent ones such as Malawi.

摘 要

进口价格对汇率的反应可以用来预测贸易政策变化的影响，因为对称假说认为关税和汇率对价格的影响是相同的。本文使用马拉维从欧盟(EU)进口的交易水平数据，研究了该假设在各种发票货币的背景下是否成立。研究结果表明，美元的发票份额最高，当考虑到发票的货币时，汇率和关税冲击对进口商的传递也很高，但不一定相等。至关重要的是，关税对价格的传递高于汇率的传递，在国家、货币和行业之间存在重要差异。因此，为了预测贸易政策的影响，双边汇率可能不适合捕捉小发展中国家的汇率传递，特别是依赖进口的国家，如马拉维。

11

Economic sentiments and international risk sharing

经济情绪和国际风险分担

Daragh Clancy, Lorenzo Ricci

Abstract

We examine an unexplored connection between economic sentiments and the degree of international risk sharing. As sentiments provide a sense of the expected direction of future income changes, if risk sharing is imperfect, countries experiencing weak sentiments should take actions to enable the smoothing of their consumption in the event this fall in income materialises. However, we find the opposite holds: weak sentiments are associated with reduced risk sharing. This finding is robust to the inclusion of alternative determinants of international risk sharing, the state of the business cycle as well as undiversifiable and persistent output fluctuations. We provide evidence that our results are consistent with loss aversion. Our findings have important implications for private initiatives and public institutions that aim to improve international risk sharing, which are usually designed on the basis of risk-averse or risk-neutral behaviour.

摘 要

我们研究了经济情绪与国际风险分担程度之间尚未探索的联系。由于情绪可以让人了解未来收入变化的预期方向，如果风险分担不完善，情绪疲软的国家应采取行动，在收入出现下降的情况下，使其消费平稳下来。然而，我们发现相反的观点:情绪低落与风险分担减少有关。这一发现有力地支持将国际风险分担的其他决定因素、商业周期状况以及不可多样化和持续的产出波动纳入其中。我们提供证据证明我们的结果与损失感一致。我们的研究结果对旨在改善国际风险分担的私人倡议和公共机构具有重要意义，它们通常是基于风险规避或风险中性行为设计的。

12

Foreign investors and target firms’ financial structure

外国投资者和目标公司的财务架构

Lorenzo Bencivelli, Beniamino Pisicoli

Abstract

We study how FDIs affect the financial structure of targeted firms, by looking at a sample of foreign acquisitions occurred in Italy between 1998 and 2016. We show that the entry of foreign investors promotes the diversification of financing sources. Moreover, foreign acquisitions lower investment sensitivity to the availability of bank credit and cash flow sensitivity of cash, allowing targeted firms to rely more on non-bank external financing channels. Importantly, these effects are stronger for investment in intangible assets. These findings suggest that the positive productivity effects of FDI emphasized in the literature are, at least in part, traceable to enhanced investment in capital that is harder to finance through the banking sector.

摘 要

我们研究了外国直接投资如何影响目标公司的财务结构，通过观察1998年至2016年在意大利发生的外国收购的样本。我们发现，外国投资者的进入促进了融资来源的多样化。此外，外资并购降低了投资对银行信贷可用性的敏感性和现金流对现金的敏感性，使得目标企业更多地依赖非银行外部融资渠道。重要的是，这些影响对无形资产的投资更为强烈。这些发现表明，文献中强调的外国直接投资的积极生产力效应，至少在一定程度上，可追溯为通过银行部门更难融资的资本投资的增加。                                          

13

Does something change in the oil market with the COVID-19 crisis?

COVID-19引发的危机是否会改变石油市场？

Dan Zhang, Arash Farnoosh, Frédéric Lantz

Abstract

This paper examines the price discovery of three international crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent, INE) before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 with the application of the information share and component share model. Our study shows that there is a structural break of the date of March 6, 2020, in each price series with Zivot and Andrew's unit root tests. Using Gregory and Hansen cointegration tests, cointegration relationships with the structural break in May 2020 are detected. According to results of Information Share (IS) and Component Share (CS) measures Brent futures price mainly plays a leading role in WTI and INE futures prices and occupies an absolutely dominant position all the time in the three crude oil futures markets systems. In the post-covid period, the price discovery efficiency of INE has been improved slightly but is still weak compared with other two markets. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the dominant position in price contribution in the relationship with INE has transferred from Brent to WTI. These findings offer practical implications for regulators and portfolio risk managers during the unprecedented uncertainty period provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic.

摘 要

本文应用信息共享和部件共享模型，考察了新冠肺炎疫情爆发前后三个国际原油期货市场(WTI、Brent、INE)的价格发现。我们的研究表明，在Zivot和Andrew的单位根检验中，每个价格序列中都存在2020年3月6日的结构性断裂。利用Gregory和Hansen协整检验，检测到与2020年5月结构断裂的协整关系。根据Information Share (IS)和Component Share (CS)测度的结果，布伦特期货价格在WTI和INE期货价格中主要起主导作用，在三大原油期货市场体系中一直占据绝对主导地位。新冠肺炎疫情后，INE的价格发现效率略有提高，但与其他两个市场相比仍较弱。新冠肺炎疫情爆发后，对INE价格贡献的主导地位从布伦特原油转移到了WTI原油。在COVID-19大流行引发的前所未有的不确定性时期，这些发现为监管机构和投资组合风险管理者提供了实际意义。                                  

14

The impact of global value chain participation on income inequality

全球价值链的参与对收入不平等的影响

Nur Carpa, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso

Abstract

There is a considerable amount of discussion over the effect of global value chain (GVC) participation on the increasing levels of income inequality in developed and developing countries. This paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of the interlink between income inequality and GVC participation. For this purpose, a panel data analysis is conducted with recent GVC data from the UNCTAD-Eora database. The results from panel data estimations for a sample of 39 countries over the period 1995–2016 suggest that offshoring has a significant inequality reducing effect for developing economies in the long run. Although the estimation results also indicate that some negative distributional effects of GVC related trade emerge in the short run, these seem to be mainly short run reactions of the economy, which might be offset in the long run through the adjustment of the labor market towards a new long run equilibrium.

摘 要

全球价值链(GVC)参与对发达国家和发展中国家收入不平等程度加剧的影响，已经有相当多的讨论。本文旨在有助于更好地理解收入不平等与全球价值链参与之间的相互联系。为此目的，利用贸发会议- eora数据库中最近的全球价值链数据进行了面板数据分析。1995年至2016年期间对39个国家样本的面板数据估计的结果表明，从长期来看，离岸外包对发展中经济体具有显著的减少不平等的效果。虽然估计结果也表明,一些负面分配效应GVC相关贸易出现在短期内,这些似乎是主要经济的短期反应,这可能会抵消长期通过调整劳动力市场走向一个新的长期均衡。

15

A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement

欧盟-南方共同市场协定的成立所产生的贸易和福利效应

Jacopo Timini, Francesca Viani

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the EU-Mercosur agreement and predict its effects on trade and welfare using a general equilibrium structural gravity model. First, we exploit the detailed provision-level information available for the EU-Mercosur agreement to identify partial equilibrium trade effects of existing treaties with similar set of provisions. In a second step, the estimated increase in trade is mapped into reductions in bilateral trade costs and imputed to EU-Mercosur country pairs to compute the general equilibrium effects of the agreement in terms of trade creation, trade diversion, and welfare effects. Our results indicate that the positive effects on trade and welfare stemming from the EU-Mercosur agreement are likely to be economically important, especially for Mercosur countries, and substantially heterogeneous both between and within the two blocs.

摘 要

本文利用一般均衡结构引力模型，分析了欧盟-南方共同市场协定对贸易和福利的影响。首先，我们利用欧盟-南方共同市场协定可获得的详细条款级信息，以确定具有类似条款的现有条约的部分均衡贸易效应。在第二步中，估算的贸易增长被映射为双边贸易成本的降低，并将其计入欧盟-南方共同市场国家对，以计算该协定在贸易创造、贸易转移和福利效应方面的一般均衡效应。我们的研究结果表明，欧盟-南方共同市场协议对贸易和福利的积极影响可能在经济上具有重要意义，特别是对南方共同市场国家而言，而且在两个集团之间和内部都存在很大差异。

资料来源于期刊网址，仅供学术交流使用，不得用于商业用途！来源：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-economics/vol/169/suppl/C

国内权威期刊目录 《金融研究》(总第176期)

国内权威期刊目录 《统计研究》(总第175期)

国内权威期刊目录 《世界经济》(总第174期)

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