期刊介绍

2022年4月刊合集（卷208）

目     录

（1）

Television and American consumerism

电视和美国消费主义

Woojin Kim

关键词：Television；Advertising；Conspicuous consumption；Consumerism

（2）

Diverting domestic turmoil

转移国内动荡

AshaniAmarasinghe

关键词：Diversionary foreign policy；Domestic turmoil；Football；Connectivity

（3）

Natural gas flaring, respiratory health, and distributional effects

天然气燃烧、呼吸健康和分布影响

Wesley Blundell, Anatolii Kokoza

关键词：Flaring；Air pollution；Shale development；Respiratory health；Distributional implications

 （4）

Tradable immigration quotas revisited

重新审视可交易的移民配额

Martin Hagen

关键词：Immigration；Asylum；Tradable quotas；Cap and trade；Matching；Externalities

（5）

Sources of inertia in the individual health insurance market

个人医疗保险市场惯性的来源

Coleman Drake, Conor Ryan, Bryan Dowd

关键词：Health insurance；Inertia；Attention；Switching costs；Health insurance marketplace

（6）

The medicaid windfall: Medicaid expansions and the target efficiency of hospital safety-net subsidies

医疗补助意外收获：医疗补助扩张与医院安全网补助目标效率

Sayeh Nikpay

关键词：Health economics；Public economics；Target efficiency；Safety-net

（7）

Home bias in humanitarian aid: The role of regional favoritism in the allocation of international disaster relief

人道主义援助中的本国偏向：地区偏向在国际救灾分配中的作用             

Christian Bommer, Axel Dreher, Marcello Perez-Alvarez

关键词：Humanitarian aid；Natural disasters；Regional favoritism；Birth regions

（8）

Financial (dis-)information: Evidence from a multi-country audit study

财务（披露）信息：来自多国审计研究的证据

Xavier Giné, Rafael Keenan Mazer

关键词：Disclosure mandates；Compliance；Audit study

（9）

Changes in household diet: Determinants and predictability

家庭饮食的变化：决定因素和可预测性

Stefan Hut, Emily Oster

关键词：Dietary choice；Health；Applied microeconomics

Opportunity and inequality across generations

跨代机会和不平等

Reexamining the evidence on gun ownership and homicide using proxy measures of ownership

（12）

Incentive effects of the IRS’ passport certification and revocation process

美国国税局护照认证和撤销程序的激励效应

Paul R. Organ, Alex Ruda, Joel Slemrod, Alex Turk

关键词： compliance；enforcement；Collateral sanctions

（13）

Stalin and the origins of mistrust

斯大林与不信任的起源

Milena Nikolova, Olga Popova, Vladimir Otrachshenko

关键词：Social trust；Institutional trust；Social capital；Gulag；Forced labor；Economic history；Former Soviet Union

（14）

Credit constraints and human capital policies

信贷限制和人力资本政策

Braz Camargo, Guilherme Stein

关键词：Government spending；Credit constraints；Human capital policies

（15）

Minorities’strategic response todiscrimination: Experimentalevidence

少数民族对歧视的战略反应：实验证据

Nikoloz Kudashvili, Philipp Lergetporer

关键词：Discrimination；Experiment；Signaling；Adolescents

（16）

Financial(dis-)information:Evidence from a multi-country audit study

财务（披露）信息：来自多国审计研究的证据

Viacheslav Sheremirov, Sandra Spirovska

关键词：Fiscal policy；Military spending；Multiplier

（17）

VAT compliance, trade, and institutions

增值税合规、贸易和机构

Peter Morrow, Michael Smart, Artur Swistak

关键词：

Value-addedtax；Tax compliance；

（18）

Are deficits free?

赤字是免费的吗？

Johannes Brumm, Xiangyu Feng, Laurence Kotlikoff, Felix Kubler

关键词：Deficits；Dynamic inefficiency；Intergenerational risk sharing；Pay-go social security；Ponzi schemes；Public debt；Social security

（19）

Cash on the table? Imperfect take-up of tax incentives and firm investment behavior

现金在桌子上？税收激励和企业投资行为的不完善

Wei Cui, Jeffrey Hicks, Jing Xing

关键词：Tax incentives；Investment；Take-up；Tax administration

（20）

The effect of emergency financial assistance on healthcare use

紧急财政援助对医疗使用的影响

Henry Downes, David C. Phillips, James X. Sullivan

关键词：Homelessness prevention；Healthcare use；Social insurance

1

Television and American consumerism

电视与美国消费主义

Woojin Kim

Abstract

How did the introduction of mass commercial television in the postwar era change American consumer behavior? Media scholars and U.S. historians claim that TV with its unprecedented advertising appeal drew Americans into a culture of upscaling and purchasing products for social status. I test this prevailing theory using newly digitized nationwide county-level retail sales data from the Census of Business series. I compare growth in retail sales between areas with and without local TV service over the unanticipated Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Freeze, which halted the licensing of new TV stations from 1948–52. I find three results that corroborate TV’s long-attributed role in American consumerism. First, during the Freeze, total retail sales in counties with TV access increased by 3–4% more on average than in counties without access. Second, the effect of TV was concentrated in the automobile sector, which alone accounted for a third of the total difference. Third, TV advertising led to higher growth in sales, but only for durable goods, which neatly aligns with both qualitative reports and theories of conspicuous consumption. Historians also propose that the suburban family life popularized in TV sitcoms became the mainstream representation of the American Dream in the 1950s. Consistent with these accounts, I find that the start of TV access coincides with greater activity in local highway construction and birthrates.

摘 要

战后大众商业电视的引入是如何改变美国消费者的行为的？媒体学者和美国历史学家认为，电视以其前所未有的广告吸引力吸引美国人进入一种为了社会地位而购买产品的文化。我测试这一流行的理论使用新的数字化的全国县级零售业销售数据从商业普查系列。我比较了有和没有当地电视服务的地区与意外的联邦通信委员会之间的零售额增长(FCC)冻结（ Freeze ），从 1948 - 52 年起停止了新电视台的许可。我发现三个结果证实了电视长期以来在美国消费主义中扮演的角色。首先，在冻结期间，有电视接入的县的总零售额平均比没有接入电视的县高出 3 - 4 %。第二，电视的影响集中在汽车领域，仅这一个领域就占了总差异的三分之一。第三，电视广告带来了更高的销售增长，但仅限于耐用品，这与定性报告和炫耀性消费理论完全一致。历史学家还提出，电视情景喜剧中普及的郊区家庭生活成为了 20 世纪 50 年代美国梦的主流表现形式。与这些描述相一致，我发现电视接入的开始与当地高速公路建设和出生率的更大活动相一致。

2

Diverting domestic turmoil

转移国内动荡

AshaniAmarasinghe

Abstract

   When faced with intense domestic turmoil, governments may strategically engage in foreign interactions to divert the public’s attention away from pressing domestic issues. I test this hypothesis for a globally representative sample of 190 countries, at the monthly level, over the years 1997–2014. Using high–frequency data on media–reported events, I find robust evidence that governments resort to diversionary strategies in times of domestic turmoil and that such diversion takes the form of verbally aggressive foreign interactions. Diversionary interactions are typically targeted at countries closely linked along cultural and geographic dimensions, and at countries with low levels of state capability. Interestingly, I do not find evidence of these strategies being effective in deterring domestic turmoil. Taken together, these findings provide new insights on governments’ systematic use of verbally aggressive foreign interactions as a short-term, low-cost, low-risk, strategic tool, to divert domestic turmoil.

摘 要

3

Natural gas flaring, respiratory health, and distributional effects

天然气燃烧、呼吸健康和分布影响

Wesley Blundell, Anatolii Kokoza

Abstract

摘要

4

Tradable immigration quotas revisited

重新审视可交易的移民配额

Tatsuki Ueda

Abstract

摘 要

本文回顾了可交易移民配额背后的理论，该理论被认为是为了提高南北移民，特别是难民安置。我们通过证明可交易的移民配额对东道国来说通常不是功利的有效性来验证以前的研究。原因是，全球移民带来的外部效应比其他公共品问题（如环境保护）更为复杂，而在环境保护方面，市场工具是常见的。当移民与国家匹配时，这种低效率就会加剧。尽管有这些警告，我们提供了有利于可交易移民配额加匹配的新结果。

5

Sources of inertia in the individual health insurance market

个人医疗保险市场惯性的来源

Coleman Drake, Conor Ryan, Bryan Dowd

Abstract

Consumers in private health insurance markets are highly inertial. The literature has repeatedly found consumers are willing to pay thousands of dollars to keep their health plan. However, the causes of inertia are not well understood, despite their importance in determining whether welfare can be improved by reducing inertia and which types of policies would be effective in doing so. Using administrative data from California’s Health Insurance Marketplace, we separately identify three sources of inertia—tastes for provider continuity, inattention, and hassle costs—using two-stage models of inattention and health plan choice. We find that eliminating inattention and hassle costs would reduce repeated health plan choice by 53 percentage points and that interventions to reduce inattention and hassle costs are complements. Inattention and hassle costs cost consumers over a billion dollars in foregone consumer surplus in 2018, roughly $1,790 per household per year or half the annual premium paid by the median household, with inattention accounting for the largest source of forgone surplus. We conclude that interventions to reduce inertial plan choice should jointly focus on hassle costs and particularly inattention, but not tastes for provider continuity.

摘 要

 私人医疗保险市场的消费者是高度惯性的。文献反复发现消费者愿意支付数千美元来保持他们的健康计划。然而，惯性的原因没有得到很好的理解，尽管它们在确定是否可以通过减少惯性来改善福利以及哪些类型的政策能够有效地这样做方面很重要。使用来自加州健康保险市场的行政数据，我们分别确定了三个惯性来源——对供应商连续性的偏好、注意力不集中和麻烦成本——使用注意力分散和健康计划选择的两阶段模型。我们发现，消除注意力不集中和麻烦成本将减少重复的健康计划选择 53 个百分点，干预，以减少注意力和麻烦的成本是补充。在 2018 年，疏忽和麻烦成本使消费者损失了超过 10 亿美元的消费者剩余，每户每年约为 1790 美元，相当于中等家庭每年支付保费的一半，疏忽是损失剩余的最大来源。我们的结论是，干预，以减少惯性计划的选择应该共同关注的麻烦成本，特别是不注意，但不是口味的供应商连续性。

6

The medicaid windfall: Medicaid expansions and the target efficiency of hospital safety-net subsidies

医疗补助意外收获：医疗补助扩张与医院安全网补助目标效率

 Erlend Dancke Sandorf, Kristine Grimsrud, Henrik Lindhjem

Abstract

Federal hospital safety-net subsidy programs seek to defray costs of uncompensated hospital care, but eligibility criteria are based on Medicaid volume. Therefore, subsidies have poor “target efficiency”: hospitals that provide large amounts of uncompensated care may not receive subsidies (exclusion error), while hospitals that provide little uncompensated care may receive subsidies (inclusion error). Medicaid expansions may exacerbate poor targeting by increasing Medicaid patient volume while reducing uncompensated care. Using hospital administrative data from 2003 to 2019, I quantify the target efficiency of Medicare and Medicaid Disproportionate Share Hospital payments and the 340B drug discount program and quantify how changes in Medicaid eligibility affect safety-net subsidy receipt and target efficiency. I find that the ACA Medicaid expansion increased participation in Medicare DSH and 340B, especially among non-safety-net hospitals (inclusion errors) resulting in a shift of approximately $5B from safety-net to non-safety-net hospitals. I find the opposite for a Medicaid contraction in Tennessee in 2005. My results demonstrate an unintended consequence of Medicaid-based eligibility criteria: changes in Medicaid coverage affect the allocation of public subsidies for safety-net patients.

摘 要

 联邦医院安全网补贴计划旨在支付无补偿的医院护理费用，但资格标准是基于医疗补助的数量。因此，补贴有很差的“目标效率”：提供大量无补偿医疗的医院可能得不到补贴（排除错误），而很少提供无补偿治疗的医院则可能获得补贴（包含错误）。医疗补助扩张可能会通过增加医疗补助病人数量而减少无偿护理而加剧不良的目标。使用 2003 年至 2019 年的医院管理数据，我量化了医疗保险和医疗补助不成比例的份额医院支付和 340B 药品折扣计划的目标效率，并量化医疗补助资格的变化如何影响安全网补贴收入和目标效率。我发现阿科萨医疗补助计划的扩张增加了对医疗保险的参与DSH和 340B ，特别是在非安全网医院（包含错误）中，导致大约 50 亿美元从安全网转移到非安全网络医院。我发现 2005 年田纳西州的医疗补助计划收缩的情况正好相反。我的研究结果显示了基于医疗补助的资格标准的一个意想不到的后果：医疗补助覆盖范围的变化影响了安全网患者公共补贴的分配。

7

Home bias in humanitarian aid: The role of regional favoritism in the allocation of international disaster relief

人道主义援助中的本国偏向：地区偏向在国际救灾分配中的作用

Christian Bommer, Axel Dreher, Marcello Perez-Alvarez

Abstract

摘 要

本文探讨是否区域偏袒塑造人道主义援助流动。我们使用来自美国对外灾难援助办公室（ OFD A ）报告的丰富而独特的数据集表明，当外部自然灾害袭击受援国政治领导人的出生地时，支付的援助金额大大增加。虽然我们没有发现证据表明美国的商业或政治利益会影响这种本土偏向的规模，但这种偏向在官僚主义和治理较弱的国家更为强烈，表明援助分配缺乏有效的保障措施。

8

Financial (dis-)information: Evidence from a multi-country audit study

财务（披露）信息：来自多国审计研究的证据

Xavier Giné, Rafael Keenan Mazer

Abstract

摘 要

我们在加纳、墨西哥和秘鲁进行审计研究,以评估强制披露是否得到执行,以及所提供的产品是否满足低收入客户的需求。训练有素的审计员访问了金融机构，寻找信贷和储蓄产品。我们发现员工只在被要求时提供成本信息，主动披露的总成本不到三分之一。由于信息有限，比较购物的优势很小。此外，很少向客户提供最便宜的产品。

9

Changes in household diet: Determinants and predictability

家庭饮食的变化：决定因素和可预测性

 Stefan Hut, Emily Oster

Abstract

We use grocery purchase data to analyze dietary changes. We show that dietary change is unusual, even in response to significant disease diagnosis or changes in household circumstances. We then identify a small subset of households which show significant dietary changes (either improvements or worsened diet). We use machine learning to predict these households and find dietary concentration is a significant predictor of change. Households tend to change a small subset of food items at a time, suggesting dietary recommendations might be better focused on making smaller, simpler changes rather than broader diet alterations.

摘 要

我们使用杂货店购买数据来分析饮食变化。我们表明，饮食的改变是不寻常的，即使在重大疾病诊断或家庭环境的变化。然后，我们确定了一个小子集的家庭表现出显着的饮食变化（改善或恶化的饮食）。我们使用机器学习来预测这些家庭，发现膳食浓度是一个显著的变化预测指标。家庭倾向于一次改变一小部分食物，这表明饮食建议可能更好地集中于更小、更简单的改变，而不是更广泛的饮食改变。

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10

Opportunity and inequality across generations

跨代机会和不平等

Winfried Koeniger, Carlo Zanella

Abstract

We analyze how intergenerational mobility and inequality would change relative to the status quo if dynasties had access to optimal insurance against low ability of future generations. Based on a dynamic, dynastic Mirrleesian model, we find that insurance against intergenerational ability risk increases in the social optimum relative to the status quo. This implies less intergenerational mobility in terms of welfare but no quantitatively significant change in earnings mobility. Earnings mobility is thus similar across economies with different incentives and welfare, illustrating that changes in earnings mobility cannot be interpreted readily in welfare terms without further analysis.

摘 要

 我们分析了代际流动性和不平等将如何改变相对于现状，如果王朝有机会为后代低能力的最佳保险。基于动态的、动态的 Mirrleesian 模型，我们发现针对代际能力风险的保险在相对于现状的社会最优时增加。这意味着在福利方面代际流动性减少，但在收入流动性方面没有显著的数量变化。因此，收入流动性在不同的激励和福利的经济体中是相似的，说明如果没有进一步的分析，收入的流动性的变化不能很容易地用福利来解释。

11

Reexamining the evidence on gun ownership and homicide using proxy measures of ownership

Karim Chalak, Daniel Kim, Megan Miller, John Pepper

Abstract

Limited by the lack of data on gun ownership in the United States, ecological research linking firearms ownership rates to homicide often relies on proxy measures of ownership. Although the variable of interest is the gun ownership rate, not the proxy, the existing research does not formally account for the fact that the proxy is an error-ridden measure of the ownership rate. In this paper, we reexamine the ecological association between state-level gun ownership rates and homicide explicitly accounting for the measurement error in the proxy measure of ownership. To do this, we apply the results in Chalak and Kim (2020) to provide informative bounds on the mean association between rates of homicide and firearms ownership. In this setting, the estimated lower bound on the magnitude of the association corresponds to the conventional linear regression model estimate whereas the upper bound depends on prior information about the measurement error process. Our preferred model yields an upper bound on the gun homicide elasticity that is nearly three times larger than the fixed effects regression estimates that do not account for measurement error. Moreover, we consider three point-identified models that rely on earlier validation studies and on instrumental variables respectively, and find that the gun homicide elasticity nearly equals this upper bound. Thus, our results suggest that the association between gun homicide and ownership rates is substantially larger than found in the earlier literature.

摘 要

由于美国缺乏枪支所有权的数据，将枪支拥有率与凶杀联系起来的生态学研究往往依赖于替代的所有权措施。虽然利益的变量是枪支拥有率，而不是代理人，现有的研究并没有正式解释的事实，代理人是一个错误百出的措施的拥有率。在本文中，我们重新审视国家级枪支拥有率和凶杀之间的生态关联明确占所有权的代理措施的测量误差。为了做到这一点，我们应用在 Chalak 和 Kim （ 2020 ）中的结果提供了关于凶杀率和枪支拥有率之间的平均关联的信息边界。在这种设置中，估计的下界上的关联的幅度对应于传统的线性回归模型估计，而上界取决于先验信息的测量误差过程。我们的首选模型产生的枪支杀人弹性的上限是近三倍大的固定效应回归估计，不占测量误差。此外，我们考虑三个点确定的模型，依赖于早期的验证研究和工具变量分别，发现枪支杀人弹性几乎等于这个上限。因此，我们的研究结果表明，枪支杀人和拥有率之间的关联大大大于在早期文献中发现的。

12

Incentive effects of the IRS’ passport certification and revocation process

美国国税局护照认证和撤销程序的激励效应

 Paul R. Organ, Alex Ruda, Joel Slemrod, Alex Turk

Abstract

Traditional penalties for tax noncompliance are financial, but many jurisdictions now also use non-monetary tools, including collateral sanctions that deny access to some government-provided service. To learn about the effectiveness of one such penalty, we examine a recent U.S. policy restricting passport access for taxpayers with substantial tax debt, known as “certification.” We take advantage of a field experiment during the policy rollout, and find small but positive effects on taxpayer compliance of the certification notice sent to eligible taxpayers. We then study a subset of certified taxpayers who were denied a passport-related request, and find an immediate and strong positive effect of the denial on compliance.

摘 要

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13

Stalin and the origins of mistrust

斯大林与不信任的起源

 Milena Nikolova, Olga Popova, Vladimir Otrachshenko

Abstract

摘 要

我们研究了当前前苏联（ FSU ）国家内部信任水平的差异，并将其起源追溯到斯大林时期的强迫劳动制度，其特点是高监禁率和严厉惩罚。我们探讨是否那些暴露于知识的镇压变得不那么信任和转移这一社会规范的后代和社区。我们认为，政治镇压更突出和可见的地方社区生活在强迫劳动营（古拉格），这象征着斯大林政权的严酷。将当代的调查数据与强迫劳动营的地理位置相结合，我们发现，生活在旧古拉格附近会降低当今的社会信任和公民参与。这些影响是独立的生活附近的地方，斯大林的受害者被捕。此外，它们超越了现存文献记载的任何战争或国内冲突的经验，表明古拉格制度的压制性是当今 FSU 国家内部不信任文化的关键触发因素。因此，我们提供了新的证据，过去的政治镇压如何影响当前的社会经济。

14

Credit constraints and human capital policies

信贷限制和人力资本政策

Braz Camargo, Guilherme Stein

Abstract

We develop a model of voting to show how credit constraints affect a society’s demand for government spending on human capital policies, namely, policies that increase the returns to human capital investments. The main result of the model is that a reduction in credit constraints can increase the share of government spending on such policies, with a greater increase in poorer societies. We also provide suggestive cross-country evidence in support of our model by showing that the share of government spending on public education and health is negatively related to measures of credit constraints, with a stronger negative relation in poorer societies.

摘 要

我们开发了一个投票模型来展示信贷约束如何影响一个社会对政府人力资本政策支出的需求，即增加人力资本投资回报的政策。该模型的主要结果是，减少信贷约束可以增加政府在这类政策上的支出份额，在较贫穷的社会中增加的份额更大。我们还提供了具有启发性的跨国证据来支持我们的模型，表明政府在公共教育和卫生方面的支出份额与信贷约束措施负相关，在较贫穷的社会中负相关关系更强。

15

Minorities’ strategic response to discrimination: Experimental evidence

少数民族对歧视的战略反应：实验证据

 Nikoloz Kudashvili, Philipp Lergetporer

Abstract

摘 要

对少数群体的歧视在许多社会中普遍存在，但少数群体为尽量减少歧视而采用的战略却鲜为人知。在我们与格鲁吉亚 758 名高中生的信任游戏中，格鲁吉亚族委托人歧视亚美尼亚族少数民族。我们引入一个初步的信号阶段，调查亚美尼亚人是否愿意隐藏自己的种族，以避免预期的歧视。43 %的亚美尼亚受托人谎称他们有一个格鲁吉亚名字。信令行为是由预期转移和基于身份的动机驱动的。这种对种族的战略性歪曲增加了格鲁吉亚委托人预期的反向转移，消除了他们的歧视行为。

16

Financial (dis-)information: Evidence from a multi-country audit study

财务（披露）信息：来自多国审计研究的证据

Viacheslav Sheremirov, Sandra Spirovska

Abstract

摘 要

本文提供了新的证据，政府支出对产出的影响，从一个大面板的发达国家和发展中国家。我们使用国际军事支出的变化来确定政府支出冲击。我们估计一年的财政乘数，汇集在样本中的所有国家，在0.8附近。在冲击发生两年后，汇集的累积乘数达到峰值0.86。我们发现，在不同经济环境和国家之间存在很大的异质性：在发达经济体、衰退期、负面冲击、固定汇率下和封闭经济体中，乘数相对较大（大于 1 ）。我们还分析了识别限制可能不成立的情况下，强调军事支出方法的可能局限性，并提供了更广泛的可能影响。

17

VAT compliance, trade, and institutions

增值税合规、贸易和机构

Peter Morrow, Michael Smart, Artur Swistak

Abstract

We develop a simple model of value added tax (VAT) compliance, and estimate it using widely available national accounts data to learn about compliance in countries where little is currently known. International border controls improve VAT compliance, generating a correlation between imports and aggregate VAT revenues that is informative about domestic non-compliance. We estimate nearly 30 percent of domestic value added escapes taxation through non-compliance for the average country in our sample, with much higher levels of non-compliance in countries with low perceived institutional quality. We analyze how our estimates are related to institutional differences among countries, and discuss the implications for tax policy.

摘 要

我们开发了一个简单的增值税（ VAT ）合规模型，并使用广泛可用的国民账户数据估计它，以了解目前尚不为人知的国家的合规状况。国际边境管制提高了增值税合规性，在进口和增值税总收入之间产生了相关性，这有助于了解国内不遵守情况。我们估计，在样本中的平均国家中，近 30 %的国内附加值通过不遵守逃避税收，在感知的制度质量低的国家，不遵守的程度更高。我们分析了我们的估计是如何与国家之间的制度差异，并讨论了税收政策的影响。

18

Are deficits free?

赤字是免费的吗？

Johannes Brumm, Xiangyu Feng, Laurence Kotlikoff, Felix Kubler

Abstract

Deficit finance, a.k.a. pay-go policy, is free when growth rates routinely exceed safe government borrowing rates. Or so many say. This note presents four counterexamples based on four versions of a simple OLG economy. In each version the growth rate exceeds the safe rate for one of four reasons – uninsured idiosyncratic risk, uninsured aggregate risk, policy uncertainty, and imperfect financial intermediation. Deficit finance does not directly address any of these problems. What works, respectively speaking, is progressive taxation, bilateral intergenerational risk-sharing, early policy resolution, and improved intermediation. The four examples thus show that seemingly free deficits may be more costly than they appear. Indeed, inefficient pay-go policy can even lower the government’s borrowing rate, encouraging yet more deficit finance.

摘 要

当经济增长率经常超过安全的政府借贷利率时，赤字财政，也就是有偿的政策是免费的。或者这么多人说。本文基于一个简单的 OLG 经济的四个版本提出了四个反例。在每个版本中，增长率超过安全率的原因有四个——未保险的特质风险、未保险总风险、政策不确定性和金融中介不完善。赤字财政并不能直接解决这些问题。分别而言，起作用的是累进税制、双边代际风险分担、早期政策解决和改善中介。因此，上述四个例子表明，看似免费的赤字可能比表面看起来更昂贵。事实上，低效率的支付政策甚至会降低政府的借贷利率，鼓励更多的赤字融资。

19

Cash on the table? Imperfect take-up of tax incentives and firm investment behavior

现金在桌子上？税收激励和企业投资行为的不完善

Wei Cui, Jeffrey Hicks, Jing Xing

Abstract

We investigate whether investment incentives work in less developed countries by exploiting the introduction of accelerated depreciation (AD) for fixed asset investment in China as a natural experiment. In contrast to the large positive impact of similar tax incentives in the U.S. and U.K. found in recent studies, we document that AD was ineffective in stimulating Chinese firms’ investment. Further, using confidential corporate tax returns from a large province, we find that firms fail to claim the AD benefit on over 80% of eligible investments. Firms’ take-up is significantly influenced by their taxable positions and tax sophistication. Moreover, resources of local tax authorities help improve awareness of the policy. Our study contributes to the understanding of conditions under which tax incentives for investment can be effective.

摘 要

我们通过在中国引入固定资产投资加速折旧（ AD ）作为一个自然实验，考察投资激励在欠发达国家是否有效。与最近的研究发现的美国和英国类似的税收激励措施的巨大积极影响相反，我们证明了反倾销在刺激中国企业投资方面是无效的。此外，使用来自一个大省的保密企业纳税申报表，我们发现超过 80 %的符合条件的投资企业没有申报 AD 收益。企业的接受程度受其应税地位和税收复杂性的显著影响。此外，地方税务部门的资源有助于提高对该政策的认识。我们的研究有助于理解投资税收激励的有效条件。

20

The effect of emergency financial assistance on healthcare use

紧急财政援助对医疗使用的影响

Henry Downes, David C. Phillips, James X. Sullivan

Abstract

Does providing financial assistance to people who have just experienced an income shock affect their healthcare use? To address this question, we examine healthcare outcomes in a setting where people at risk of homelessness due to an income shock were offered or denied referral to financial assistance quasi-randomly. Among callers who have been screened as eligible for assistance at Chicago’s Homelessness Prevention Call Center (HPCC), some are denied assistance because the availability of funding varies. Conditional on some observable characteristics, funding availability is as-good-as-randomly assigned to callers. We link callers to healthcare utilization records and observe their inpatient hospital stays and emergency department visits. We find that referral to financial assistance has little effect on overall healthcare use–we can reject increases in total utilization greater than 7% of the base rate and decreases of more than 4%. This null effect can be explained, in part, by the fact that the income shock does not significantly change overall healthcare use among those not receiving assistance, suggesting that these individuals can insure health and healthcare demand against these shocks in other ways.

摘 要

为刚刚经历了收入冲击的人提供经济援助会影响他们的医疗保健使用吗？为了解决这个问题，我们研究了医疗保健的结果，在一个环境中，人们在无家可归的风险，由于收入冲击提供或拒绝转诊的财政援助准随机。在芝加哥无家可归预防呼叫中心被筛选为有资格获得援助的呼叫者中(HPCC),有些人由于资金的可得性而得不到援助。有条件的一些可观察的特征，资金可用性是良好的随机分配给呼叫者。我们将呼叫者连接到医疗保健利用记录，并观察他们的住院和急诊科访问。我们发现，转介到财政援助的整体医疗保健使用的影响不大，我们可以拒绝增加总利用率超过 7 %的基本率和下降超过 4 %。这种零效应可以解释，部分，收入冲击没有显着改变那些没有接受援助的人的整体医疗保健使用的事实，这表明这些人可以确保健康和医疗需求，以其他方式对这些冲击。

资料来源于期刊网址，仅供学术交流使用，不得用于商业用途！来源：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-public-economics/vol/208/suppl/C

国内权威期刊目录 《金融研究》(总第176期)

国内权威期刊目录 《统计研究》(总第175期)

#前沿佳文

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