《American Economic Review》｜从大萧条中复苏:1933年春季的农场频道

摘要：从1933年3月到7月，美国工业生产增长了57%。我们表示复苏的一个重要来源是美元贬值对农产品价格、收入和消费的影响。货币贬值立即提高了农产品交易价格，受价格上涨影响最大的州和县的汽车销售增长更快。在农业债务负担较重的县，这种反应被放大了。对于农民的相对边际消费倾向、农产品价格的上涨的发生率以及总体乘数的合理假设，对农民的再分配占了1933年春季经济增长的很大一部分。因此这个农业渠道提供了一个例子，说明宏观经济政策的分配后果如何产生巨大的总体影响。1933年的经济复苏得益于对农民的再分配，表明以1933年为指南来研究其他情况下货币制度变化的影响具有很重要的局限性。

Abstract：From March to July 1933, US industrial production rose 57 percent. We show that an important source of recovery was the effect of dollar devaluation on farm prices, incomes, and consumption. Devaluation immediately raised traded crop prices, and auto sales grew more rapidly in states and counties most exposed to these price increases. The response was amplified in counties with more severe farm debt burdens. For plausible assumptions about farmers' relative MPC（marginal propensity to consume）, the incidence of higher farm prices, and the aggregate multiplier, this redistribution to farmers accounted for a substantial portion of spring 1933 growth. This farm channel thus provides an example of how the distributional consequences of macroeconomic policies can have large aggregate effects. That recovery in 1933 benefited from redistribution to farmers suggests an important limitation to the use of 1933 as a guide to the effects of monetary regime changes in other circumstances.

原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170237