《JRS》| Zhang et al：农村转型对面源污染的影响研究—基于对中国传统农区的综合性分析

摘要：控制面源污染(NPSP)已被视为实现农村可持续发展的优先事项。大量文献研究了经济增长或城市化对NPSP的影响，而很少有文献研究农村转型发展(RTD)如何影响NPSP，以及过程本身的差异如何影响RTD对此类排放的影响。为了填补这些空白，本文通过解决RTD过程的三个不同维度——区域城市化、农业现代化和土地利用转型，实证而全面地研究了RTD对NPSP的多重影响。使用清单分析方法对NPSP负荷进行了长期（1990-2017年）的纵向趋势分析，以克服收集污染监测数据的困难。我们的研究结果表明RTD与NPSP总体呈现倒“U”形关系，并且RTD的不同维度和NPSP的不同成分和来源之间存在差异化的演化轨迹。总磷（TP）和种植业引起的NPSP排放的转折点出现较晚。土地利用转型和农业现代化进程与种植业排放量呈显著正相关。此外，NPSP的演变与国家战略、农业政策和环境法规的变化高度相关。这些发现提供了对人与环境关系的洞察，表明应根据RTD的发展阶段制定合理的对策。

关键词：农村发展；环境问题；土地利用转型；综合评价

Abstract: Controlling non-point source pollution (NPSP) has been viewed as a priority for realizing rural sustainability. Substantial literature has examined the effects of economic growth or urbanization on NPSP, while little work has been undertaken to investigate how rural transformation development (RTD) influence NPSP, and how differences in the process itself affect the impact that RTD has on such emissions. To fill these gaps, this paper empirically and comprehensively investigates the multiple effects of RTD on NPSP, by addressing three different dimensions of the RTD process-namely, regional urbanization, agricultural modernization, and land use transition. Longitudinal trends analysis of NPSP loads over the long-term (1990–2017) using the approach of inventory analysis was conducted to overcome the difficulty in gathering pollution monitoring data. Our results suggest that RTD generally presents an inverted “U” shaped relationship with NPSP, and differentiated evolution trajectories exist between different dimensions of RTD and different components and sources of NPSP. The turning points of total phosphor (TP) and planting industry-induced NPSP emission appear later than others. Land use transition and agricultural modernization process have significantly positive relations with the emissions from the planting industry. Furthermore, the evolution of NPSP is highly coupled with the shifts in national strategies, agricultural policies, and environmental regulations. These findings provide insights into the human-environment relation, suggesting that reasonable countermeasures should be formulated corresponding to the development stage of RTD.

原文链接：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0743016720304496

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